The Tampa Bay Rays host the Baltimore Orioles on August 16, 2026. First pitch from Tropicana Field is scheduled for 12:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Peacock.
The Rays are favored by -144 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +122 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Rays prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Rays Prediction
- Orioles vs Rays Pick: Over 7.5 (-108 | Play to -120)
My Orioles vs Rays best bet is Over 7.5. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Rays Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -196 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | +122 |
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 7.5 -115o / -105u | -144 |
- Orioles vs Rays moneyline: Orioles +122, Rays -144
- Orioles vs Rays over/under: 7.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Orioles vs Rays spread: Orioles +1.5 (-196), Rays -1.5 (+162)
Orioles vs Rays Probable Pitchers
| Trevor Rogers (LHP, BAL) | Stat | Freddy Peralta (RHP, TB) |
|---|---|---|
| 7-8 | W-L | 5-9 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.1 |
| 4.21 / 3.88 | ERA / xERA | 5.33 / 4.03 |
| 3.61 / 4.28 | FIP / xFIP | 4.56 / 4.25 |
| 13.5% | K-BB% | 12.8% |
| 39.3% | GB% | 40.0% |
| .293 | BABIP | .320 |
| 101 | Stuff+ | 96 |
| 104 | Location+ | 104 |
Orioles vs Rays MLB Betting Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Orioles hand the ball to left-hander Trevor Rogers, who should serve as a good fade candidate. After a tremendous 2025, Rogers has taken a big step back this year.
Through 22 starts, the southpaw owns a 4.21 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. His underlying metrics are equally poor.
Entering this matchup, Rogers ranks in the bottom half of the league in xBA, average exit velocity, strikeout rate and hard-hit rate. These woes are likely to continue against the Tampa Bay Rays, a team he has struggled against.
In six career meetings, Rogers owns a 6.00 ERA and 1.50 WHIP.
Tampa Bay Rays Betting Preview
From the other perspective, this current Tampa Bay roster boasts a .375 batting average, .575 slugging percentage and .422 weighted on-base average. The Rays have been massive threats at the dish this year, ranking in the top 10 in runs scored per game, hits per game, on-base percentage and OPS.
This team will need to rely on this hitting to succeed again, given that right-hander Freddy Peralta takes the mound. It's been catastrophic regression in Peralta's first season away from Milwaukee, posting a 5-9 record through 24 starts.
The right-hander owns a 5.33 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over that stretch. Like Rogers, Peralta's analytics are equally poor.
Entering this matchup, he ranks in the bottom half of the league in xERA, xBA, walk rate and hard-hit rate.
Orioles vs Rays Pick, Betting Analysis
Given the starting pitching matchup, a high-scoring affair could be in order. Both teams can also hit, highlighted above by Tampa Bay's dominance at the plate this year.
Baltimore can go toe-to-toe, given that it also ranks in the top half of the league in runs scored per game, on-base percentage and home runs.
Pick: Over 7.5 (-108 | Play to -120)
