The Cleveland Guardians host the San Diego Padres on August 16, 2026. First pitch from Progressive Field is scheduled for 1:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SDPA.
The Padres are -110 on the moneyline. The Guardians are -106 on the moneyline. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Guardians prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Guardians Prediction
Padres vs Guardians Picks:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
Padres vs Guardians Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +152 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -110 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -184 | 8.5 -104o / -118u | -106 |
Padres vs Guardians Probable Pitchers
| Casey Mize (RHP, SDP) | Stat | Tanner Bibee (RHP, CLE) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | W-L | 4-12 |
| 2.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 3.38 / 3.39 | ERA / xERA | 3.99 / 4.29 |
| 2.89 / 3.97 | FIP / xFIP | 4.51 / 4.28 |
| 17.6% | K-BB% | 12.6% |
| 32.6% | GB% | 37.8% |
| .281 | BABIP | .248 |
| 89 | Stuff+ | 103 |
| 107 | Location+ | 101 |
Padres vs Guardians MLB Betting Preview
The Guardians will host the Padres on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Tanner Bibee will start for Cleveland, while San Diego will start the recently acquired Casey Mize.
Through 25 outings, Bibee has recorded a 3.99 ERA, spraying 64 earned runs across 144 frames — although his 1.13 WHIP indicates he may be performing even better than that mark.
Padres vs Guardians Pick, Betting Analysis
Still, I love the matchup for Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis has fully broken out of his early-season slump, slashing .293/.402 /.616 with a 175 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Tatis has always been good against high-velocity stuff, and he’s already homered off Bibee in the past, so this feels like a good spot for ‘Nando to have a massive day at the plate.
Picks:
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
