Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan has that job for Sunday, August 16.
Through 22 editions, Minion is 156-131-3 on picks given out in this column, good for 42.1 Units of profit.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Orioles vs Rays NRFI
- Diamondbacks vs Braves NRFI
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 TB
- Francisco Lindor Home Run
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 TB
- Bryon Buxton Over 2.5 HRR
- Rangers ML
- Jake Burger Over 2.5 HRR
Orioles vs Rays Pick
The Rays will host the Orioles on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg. Freddy Peralta will start for Tampa Bay, while Trevor Rogers will start for Baltimore.
I expect a pitcher’s duel in this one.
Peralta has struggled this season (5.33 ERA), but Tampa Bay’s coaching staff is arguably the best in the business. I’m sure the Rays will figure out a way to turn Freddy’s season around.
Rogers has also had some struggles this season (4.21 ERA), but he’s started to settle in, recording five quality starts across his past seven starts.
These are two of my favorite arms in baseball, and I expect them both to show up on Sunday and shut down the opposing lineups — especially the first time through the order.
Picks: NRFI
Diamondbacks vs Braves Pick
The Diamondbacks and Braves will duke it out on Saturday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Truist Park in Atlanta. Bryce Elder will start for Atlanta, while Michael Soroka will start for Arizona.
Soroka has had a great season, running a 2.92 ERA and 1.10 WHIP across 16 starts.
Meanwhile, while he’s often been inconsistent, Elder has flashed at times this season. Although he allowed seven earned runs in his most recent start against the Mets, he posted a 1.88 ERA in the four starts prior.
I think runs will be at a premium in this game, especially early on.
Picks: NRFI
Padres vs Guardians Pick
The Guardians will host the Padres on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game homestand at Progressive Field in Cleveland. Tanner Bibee will start for Cleveland, while San Diego will start the recently acquired Casey Mize.
Through 25 outings, Bibee has recorded a 3.99 ERA, spraying 64 earned runs across 144 frames — although his 1.13 WHIP indicates he may be performing even better than that mark.
Still, I love the matchup for Fernando Tatis Jr.
Tatis has fully broken out of his early-season slump, slashing .293/.402 /.616 with a 175 wRC+ since the All-Star break.
Tatis has always been good against high-velocity stuff, and he’s already homered off Bibee in the past, so this feels like a good spot for ‘Nando to have a massive day at the plate.
Picks: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR | Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
Nationals vs Mets Pick
The Mets will host the Nationals on Sunday in the last of a three-game divisional set at Citi Field in Queens. Christian Scott will start for New York, while Jake Irvin will start for Washington.
Irvin’s having a tough season, running a 5.79 ERA across 65 frames.
I think this is a good spot to fade Irvin by targeting Francisco Lindor.
Lindor is white-hot, slashing .271/.352/.500 for a 138 wRC+ in August. Additionally, he’s 8-for-23 lifetime against Irvin with three doubles and two homers.
Irvin throws a four-pitch mix, tossing all three fastballs and a curveball over 80% of the time. But opposing hitters have smashed those fastballs — he’s allowed a .366 xwOBA on four-seamers, .413 on cutters, and a whopping .469 on sinkers.
Lindor is slugging just .411 against fastballs this season, but he’s due for some positive regression with a .508 xSLG. It seems that some of that regression has come over the past few weeks, and I expect more on Sunday.
It’s also worth mentioning that Lindor has homered twice off Irvin in prior head-to-head meetings.
Picks: Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR | Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 TB | Francisco Lindor Home Run
Phillies vs Twins Pick
The Twins will host the Phillies on Sunday afternoon in the last of a three-game interleague set.
With Andrew Painter and Dean Kremer on the mound, I expect plenty of offense in this one.
But I’m specifically looking to fade Painter. He’s 2-9 with a 6.27 ERA and 1.53 WHIP. He throws a ton of fastballs (33%), but the pitch doesn’t miss bats (12% whiff rate) and gets destroyed on contact (.415 xwOBA allowed).
Thus, I’m looking toward Byron Buxton, who’s making his third start back from injury.
Buxton is slugging .644 against four-seam fastballs this season, leveraging his steep attack angle (14 degrees) to crush four-seam fastballs.
I think this is a great matchup for Buxton.
Picks: Byron Buxton Over 1.5 TB | Byron Buxton Over 2.5 HRR
Rangers vs Athletics Pick
The A’s will host the Rangers on Sunday in the last of a three-game divisional set at Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
The Rangers will send out Cody Bradford. While he’s only made two starts so far, he looked rather impressive in both, entering this game with a 2.38 ERA.
Jacob Lopez will start for the A’s. He’s surely looking to improve upon his abysmal 2026 campaign, as he’s running a 5.38 ERA and 1.56 WHIP after 82 innings pitched.
Ultimately, I think Texas will win this game behind a considerable starting pitching advantage, but I’d love to fade Lopez even more.
So, I’ll target Jake Burger in the player prop market.
Burger is slugging over .500 with a .240 ISO against Southpaw pitching this season, while Lopez has allowed a .371 wOBA to right-handed hitters (compared to .287 against fellow lefties).
Lopez relies pretty heavily on a fastball-slider mix, and he’ll mix in a cutter to neutralize righties. But his stuff is pretty underwhelming all around, with a 91 MPH fastball and only one pitch with an above-average Stuff+ rating (slider, 112).
I really like the matchup for Burger in this one.
Picks: Rangers ML | Jake Burger Over 2.5 HRR
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Sunday, August 16
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- Orioles vs Rays NRFI
- Diamondbacks vs Braves NRFI
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 HRR
- Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 HRR
- Francisco Lindor Over 1.5 TB
- Francisco Lindor Home Run
- Byron Buxton Over 1.5 TB
- Bryon Buxton Over 2.5 HRR
- Rangers ML
- Jake Burger Over 2.5 HRR
