The San Diego Padres host the Baltimore Orioles on September 2, 2025. First pitch from PETCO Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN2.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Padres prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Padres Prediction
- Orioles vs Padres picks: Orioles Moneyline
My Orioles vs Padres best bet is the Orioles moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Padres Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -145 | 8.5 100o / -120u | +145 |
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8.5 100o / -120u | -175 |
Kenny Ducey’s Orioles vs Padres Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
Tyler Wells has made three starts since being activated off the injured list, and while they don't seem to be exactly in line with his performances from the past few years, there are a lot of similarities.
Wells is a fly-ball pitcher who gave up 25 homers a year ago — the 13th most in the American League — but did so in just 118 2/3 innings. This was easy to see coming, as Wells owned a bloated .437 Expected Slugging, but with an abnormally-high number of pop-ups and a neat 7.2% walk rate, his Expected ERA came home at a friendly 3.96.
Generally speaking, pitching to fly balls is a great way to combat a team that can rack up hits with consistency, but the downside of that is quite noticeable with Wells. The youngster continues to surrender barrels left and right, and this season, he's struck out fewer batters with his strikeout rate falling around five points to 19.4%.
Missing bats will be key if Wells is hoping for a quick turnaround, and while that may not be coming immediately on Tuesday against a team that has made plenty of contact, he will at least pitch in a somewhat friendly park for fly-ballers. Petco Park grades out 14th in park factor for home runs.
San Diego Padres Betting Preview
Yu Darvish is no stranger to the home run because, like Wells, he favors the fly ball. Having said that, he's started to generate more contact on the ground and, as a result, has begun to problem-solve a way out of his declining strikeout numbers.
Darvish's profile is an overall friendly one, with his Expected Batting Average sitting pretty at .224 and his xSLG residing at .405. That number jumped to an ugly .426 in August, however, as his whiff rate continued to take a huge hit, so this matchup will really test Baltimore's ability to hit for power.
At the plate, it hasn't exactly been a very Padres-like two weeks. Their strikeout rate is still very low at 20%, but they've also walked in a measly 8% of plate appearances. San Diego is still hitting a crisp .261, but it's posted a weak .147 Isolated Power and has homered just 13 times in the last 14 days — the seventh-fewest in the league.
Orioles vs Padres Prediction, Betting Analysis
The Padres own a terrible 9.1% home run-to-fly ball ratio this season — the third-worst in baseball — and wouldn't seem to pose much of a threat to this random number generator of a fly-ball pitcher in Wells. They haven't popped up much, and they do have a better OPS versus fly-ballers, but Wells has been able to effectively slow teams like this with an excellent xBA over the years.
We haven't seen those numbers present themselves quite yet through three starts in 2025, and Wells is a pitcher I simply do not like, but the fact of the matter is that the Padres are going to need to hit the ball out of the park if they want to punish the Orioles righty.
On the opposite end, the Orioles have begun to hit the ball quite well with the likes of Jeremiah Jackson and Dylan Beavers stepping up in the last two weeks, and while they've struck out over 25.5% of the time they're still hitting a cool .250. I don't trust this version of Darvish, and we've known him to be a liability in the past without swings and misses. Baltimore's offense should look even more dangerous with more balls coming back into play, and I believe in the bats enough to call an upset victory.
Pick: Orioles ML (+144) | Play to +135
Orioles vs Padres Weather
