The Seattle Mariners host the Baltimore Orioles on Wednesday, June 16. First pitch from T-Mobile Park is scheduled for 9:40 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SEAM and MLB.TV.
The Mariners are favored by -132 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +109 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Orioles vs Mariners prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Orioles vs Mariners Prediction
- Orioles vs Mariners Pick: Orioles Moneyline
My Orioles vs Mariners best bet is on Baltimore to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Mariners Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -197 | 7.5 -107o / -112u | +109 |
| Mariners Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +161 | 7.5 -107o / -112u | -132 |
- Orioles vs Mariners Moneyline: Orioles +109, Mariners -132
- Orioles vs Mariners Over/Under: 7.5 (-107 / -112)
- Orioles vs Mariners Run Line: Orioles +1.5 (-197), Mariners -1.5 (+161)
Orioles vs Mariners Kalshi MLB Odds
Orioles vs Mariners Probable Pitchers
| RHP Kyle Bradish (BAL) | Stat | RHP George Kirby (SEA) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-7 | W-L | 5-6 |
| 0.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.7 |
| 4.30 / 4.31 | ERA / xERA | 4.07 / 3.63 |
| 4.69 / 4.18 | FIP / xFIP | 3.39 / 3.55 |
| 10.5% | K-BB% | 15.1% |
| 50.0% | GB% | 52.0% |
| .327 | BABIP | .331 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 102 |
| 99 | Location+ | 112 |
Orioles vs Mariners MLB Betting Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The Orioles have been playing slightly better of late, but in the end, they've now lost three in a row and seven of their last 12. They lost the first two against Seattle a week or so ago at home before earning a split with two straight wins, and they'll be hoping for a similar script in this midweek series.
The issue is that Kyle Bradish will be toeing the slab, a pitcher who is 22-22 over his five-year career with the Orioles. The record perfectly reflects the pitcher he is, one who is rarely going to go out and win the game himself for Baltimore.
Bradish's numbers don't look all that terrible on the surface when you zoom out over his career, but very brief stints in the last two years cause us to forget that for the first two full years of his career, he was a hard man to trust.
The righty has struck out just 22.6% of batters this year, and for his career stands at 25.2%. It's not really a bad mark at all, but with walks being a frequent issue and an uninspiring profile on contact, there's not a ton to really love here.
Bradish is working with nearly average expected stats, likely because of his high ground-ball rate at 51.4%, but while hitters aren't posting a solid xSLG in the aggregate, it hasn't precluded them from hurting Bradish. He's now allowed 11 home runs in 14 starts, and homers have been an issue in the past.
With that, the ground balls are a pretty noticeable turnaround given the righty's 48.2% career ground-ball rate, and it's a result of more sinkers. His sinker is performing better than it did in his last full season, at least when it comes to the expected stats, so that's good to see. He needs to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible, considering his issues with homers this year and in the past.
Seattle Mariners Betting Preview
The Mariners are kind of in a similar boat here, losing four of their last six, and that streak began after they had taken two straight over the Orioles. They did earn a 3-1 win at home on Tuesday, and now they'll turn to George Kirby in the second game of the series.
Kirby just hasn't been as dominant as he once was. He's still a stalwart in the walks column, and he's still keeping his xSLG well under the league average as he looks to pick apart opposing offenses. That's about all I can say. He was an average strikeout arm until last season, when he recorded a career-high 26.1% punchout rate, but now that's down to a career-low 21.1% in 2026. His ERA is now comfortably above four runs since the start of last year, and his WHIP has jumped from 1.07 to 1.19 and now 1.31 over the last three campaigns.
Kirby's game has frequently been built around fly balls in Seattle, where home runs are rarer, but this year he's posted a very high 51.8% ground ball rate. For context, his career average is 45.3%, which is right around the league average. It's not that he was a true fly-ball pitcher before, but he'd never looked like a true ground-baller until this year.
The results haven't been too favorable, with Kirby's strikeout rate and xBA taking a hit, but it's definitely helped keep the xSLG down. It's not as if Seattle's defense is very good — the infield ranks fifth-worst in Outs Above Average — so this is not really going to end in a good way. Kirby's going to have to find his strikeouts again and ditch the ground ball.
Orioles vs Mariners Pick, Betting Analysis
On Wednesday, the ground ball could definitely hurt Kirby. The Orioles rank second in the league with a .778 OPS to ground-ballers, and they're just ninth against fly-ballers. The Mariners see a non-negligible dip against ground-ballers, on the other hand, and they're hitting just .237 in the last two weeks with a .158 Isolated Power.
Baltimore's offense packs a bigger punch but has too often fallen victim to strikeouts. That should change with Kirby's falling strikeout rate and aim towards ground balls this year, and if it gets the bat on the ball, good things should happen.
I'm not the biggest fan of Bradish but the ballpark and the matchup should help him out a bunch, not to mention the fact that the only time he pitched in Seattle he allowed five hits over six innings of two-run ball. Baltimore's the hotter team anyway, so I'll gladly take the O's at this price.
Pick: Orioles ML (+117) | Play to +105
