Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Pitchers Stay Hot in Indians-Twins Showdown?

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Will Pitchers Stay Hot in Indians-Twins Showdown? article feature image

Kevin Jairaj, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Trevor Bauer

Losing last night’s Under 8.5 bet in Rangers-Diamondbacks was a good example of never counting chickens. We move onto Tuesday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 69-45-3, +19.3 units

Yesterday’s Result: Rangers-Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (LOSS)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.

Betting odds: Cleveland Indians at Minnesota Twins

  • Over/Under: 8.5
  • First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
  • Probable Pitchers: Trevor Bauer (9-6, 2.32 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (5-7, 3.42 ERA)

Well, Major League Baseball’s non-waiver trade deadline has come and gone, and even with the Twins conducting several notable moves involving their roster, six-year veteran Gibson is staying put.

And it’s certainly not off base to think Gibson could continue to help the Twins. He’s someone I liked when he first came up in 2013 and viewed as a solid starter for years to come. While it took a little while for that to come to fruition, Gibson has paid dividends for a patient Minnesota franchise, enjoying by far his most success this season with career-best marks in ERA (3.42), WHIP (1.209), K/9 (8.79) and batting average against (.224).

Additionally, Gibson is generating the most soft contact during his time in the big leagues — 19.4%, to be exact — while also getting more swings and misses on pitches inside the zone (12.2%) than ever before. He’s seen an uptick in his average velocity that has exceeded it in any previous year, and it’s clear all of this has made a difference for the 30-year-old in enjoying his best season.

That last sentiment can also be applied to Bauer, the Indians right-hander who has been having an even better season — so much so that he made it to his first All-Star team. The honor was well-deserved for the pitcher otherwise known as Bauer Outage.

Bauer’s 2.32 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 11.73 K/9 and .212 BAA all rank as the highest such marks the third pick of the 2011 draft has ever produced. Furthermore, he’s also delivered career lows in BB/9 (2.99) and HR/9 (0.37), as only six balls have left the yard off the 27-year-old in 22 starts.

Simply put, Bauer has looked like an ace and that shouldn’t surprise anyone. He always brings a potentially dominant arsenal every fifth day. The Twins have experienced that often, as this will be the sixth time they have faced Bauer since the beginning of last season.

In those five meetings — including one this year — he’s accumulated 38 strikeouts compared to nine walks in 32.1 total innings, while posting a 3.92 ERA. Bauer will also see fewer familiar Minnesota faces, with talented bats Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar shipped out of town.

When these teams start this series at Target Field, two right-handers in the midst of very good campaigns will go at it. Look for both to keep it up, and with the line as high as it is, there may even be some room for error.

Play: UNDER 8.5 (-120)