MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/4: Happy Harvey Day
D. Ross Cameron, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Matt Harvey
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 4 slate of baseball games with his model below, including Red Sox-A's and Yankees-Orioles.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Wednesday saw a lot of back and forth action, with the Phillies and Nationals and the Cubs and Braves each trading the lead four times in their respective matchups.
Initially, the Nationals looked like they would sail to an easy victory after wunderkind Juan Soto’s first home run of the season put Washington ahead, 6-2, over Aaron Nola and the Phillies:
Analysts on 4/2: Juan Soto's going to have to adjust
— Washington Nationals (@Nationals) April 3, 2019
But the Nationals bullpen is a real point of weakness for this club, as it has been for several seasons. Trevor Rosenthal (acquired from the Cardinals following Tommy John Surgery) has made three appearances in 2019 and has failed to record an out while walking three batters and allowing seven runs.
Ultimately, the Nationals rallied and prevailed, 9-8, on a walk-off walk.
Similarly, the Braves rallied against the Cubs bullpen in the evening, highlighted by Johan Camargo’s bases-clearing double:
Down 4-2 in the eighth inning against the Cubs (+122), the Braves (-132) pile on four runs and have a 6-4 lead heading into the ninth inning.
Johan Camargo got this run started: pic.twitter.com/7aJpPrue2H
— The Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) April 4, 2019
Lastly, the Under in the first five-innings (F5) of Jacob deGrom’s starts are now 25-4 in his last 29 outings. The Mets ace broke the MLB record for consecutive starts allowing three runs or fewer (31) and tied Bob Gibson’s MLB record for consecutive quality starts (26).
This was deGrom’s 20th game as a Met with at least 10 strikeouts while allowing one walk or fewer. Tom Seaver had 25 such games, and Dwight Gooden had 15.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 4-4 against opening lines yesterday, but 5-4 on all recommendations if you count the Texas Rangers, who I played, following a 50-cent line adjustment from +144 to +195.
Sometimes, the betting market over-corrects and you have to be willing to buy back against it at the right price.
I easily got the best price on Atlanta (+104 vs. -132), and my favorite bets are now 7-0. I also had the best number on the Nationals (+127 vs. +118) in a good contrarian spot against Nola and the Phillies.
Detroit took the series at Yankee Stadium behind 13 strikeouts from Matt Boyd after its moneyline bounced up to +180 before ultimately settling back near open (+160).
Kansas City (+119 to +125), Miami (+180 to +187), and San Francisco (+180 to +174) were all teams that I stayed away from, and they each lost.
Game totals were split 1-1 for the day.
On Deck for Thursday 4/4
All odds as of early Thursday morning.
The model recommends three full game moneylines, and one full game total for Thursday.
I played the Cleveland and Toronto total Over 7 (-110), as I have the game projected for 8.23 runs and saw early indications of reverse line movement on the Over in the marketplace.
The weather hasn’t been good in Cleveland, and their offense has struggled to find their rhythm (13 runs scored in 5 games), but this total is set a half-run too low.
Cleveland also has an offense-favoring ballpark, with a run-scoring environment roughly 4% higher than the league average.
The model’s three moneyline recommendations for today are the Tigers, Orioles, and Athletics.
With the Yankees reeling and the Orioles playing with boundless confidence heading into their home opener, I’ll take a shot at a big price on Baltimore. I took the best available price (+194) on the Orioles before that line corrects back toward the opener (+170).
The Yankees are now waiting for Giancarlo Stanton, Miguel Andujar, Troy Tulowitzki, Dellin Betances, Aaron Hicks, Luis Severino, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Didi Gregorius to all return from injuries.
I’m not interested in laying any juice with the Tigers (-105) at the time of writing, but I will take the Athletics (+105) for the third time in four days at home against Boston, getting plus-money, and hope that they can take that series 3-1.
My Bets (So Far) for April 4
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Toronto at Cleveland, Over 7 (-110)
- Baltimore (+194) Game ML
- Oakland (+105) Game ML
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/4: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.