Blue Jays vs White Sox Odds & Prediction: Tuesday F5 Pick

Tuesday, May 28

7:40 p.m. ET

MLB.TV

Toronto Blue Jays Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
-240	7.5 -105o / -115u	-1.5 -145

Chicago White Sox Odds
Moneyline	Over/Under	Run Line
+196	7.5 -105o / -115u	+1.5 -122

Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Toronto Blue Jays will face off against the Chicago White Sox on Tuesday in the second game of this series.

Neither team has had the season they were hoping for thus far as both are in last place in their respective divisions. However, Toronto still has a fighting chance to make a run at the playoffs if it can start putting some wins on the board.

These two teams played at the beginning of last week as Toronto took two of three. The Jays also defeated the White Sox, 5-1, last night. Chicago has now lost nine of its past 10 games.

Find my Blue Jays vs White Sox prediction for Tuesday below.

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Toronto Blue Jays

Kevin Gausman has been an ace for the last few seasons, but he's struggled to begin 2024. He’ll take the mound tonight with a 4.47 ERA and a 4.89 xERA. He hasn’t had an ERA over four since 2019, so this comes as a bit of a surprise.

One possible explanation for this decline would be that his stuff has started to fall off at age 33. His average fastball velocity has dipped from 94.6 to 93.8. He's gone from having a Stuff+ of 105 in 2023 to just 97 this year, which ranks just 59th out of 126 pitchers with 40+ innings pitched this year.

Gausman has always been a guy that allows a decent amount of hard contact, but his decrease in strikeouts seems to be exacerbating this issue more. He ranks in the 18th percentile in barrel rate, 35th in exit velocity allowed and 47th in hard-hit rate.

These numbers are similar to his career stats, but his strikeout rate has dropped from the 93rd percentile to the 68th percentile, resulting in more balls being put in play.

Toronto’s offense has been among the most disappointing in the league. The Jays had playoff aspirations coming into this season, but their offense hasn't been able to live up to its billing. The Jays are 16th in wRC+, 15th in ISO and 17th in wOBA at the moment.

The contact metrics for Toronto seem to be the cause of its issues. The Blue Jays are 29th in hard-hit rate, 25th in barrel rate and 29th in exit velocity.

They mostly hit the ball in the air (10th in fly-ball rate), but they also have the fourth-highest rate of hitting the ball to the opposite field, which has resulted in a lot of weak fly balls.

Plate discipline has been a strength for the Blue Jays, as they have the fourth-lowest strikeout rate in the league and fifth-highest walk rate, which should play well in this matchup with Mike Clevinger.

Chicago White Sox

Clevinger will get the start for Chicago tonight. He's had a rough start to his 2024 season, posting a 6.75 ERA, 7.13 xERA and 6.19 FIP across 16 innings in four starts.

In these four starts, he's failed to complete the fifth inning.

It’s a small sample for Clevinger this season, but Stuff+ usually adjusts fairly quickly. His Stuff+ is just an 86, which is firmly below his 2023 number of 100 and would place him in the bottom tier of starting pitchers in the league.

Clevinger has a second-percentile barrel rate but a 60th-percentile hard-hit rate and a 24th-percentile exit velocity allowed.

One of his biggest problems has been an uptick in walk rate, as he's gone from the 67th percentile to 18th percentile in this category, posting a 11.5% walk rate to this point.

The Chicago offense has been the worst in the league this season. It ranks last in wRC+, wOBA, ISO, BABIP, AVG, OBP, SLUG and pretty much anything else you can think of.

One category that the White Sox aren’t worst in the league in is strikeout rate, as they rank 22nd among the 30 MLB teams.

The White Sox aren’t much better by Statcast metrics, as they're 28th in barrel rate and hard-hit rate.

Blue Jays vs. White Sox

Betting Pick & Prediction

Gausman may be struggling this year, but this is about as easy of a matchup as you can get. He'll have a good chance to figure out what's gone wrong with his arsenal against a truly poor offense.

Toronto’s offense has struggled to hit the ball with authority, but it also has a good matchup today, as Clevinger has had his own issues in this department.

With the Blue Jays’ offensive strength being their plate discipline, I think it bodes well for them that they get to face Clevinger, who's had issues with walking batters this season.

The Blue Jays are certainly the chalk play in this matchup, despite their rough start to the season. I think Gausman certainly holds the edge over Clevinger in this pitching matchup, even if he isn’t currently the guy he's been in recent years.

For that reason, I like taking the Blue Jays -0.5 in the first five innings, as I believe they'll have the lead by the time Clevinger exits the game.

Pick: Blue Jays F5 -0.5 (-130) | Play to -140

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