The Baltimore Orioles host the Boston Red Sox on August 26, 2025. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 6:35 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
Find my MLB betting preview and Red Sox vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction
- Red Sox vs Orioles picks: Orioles moneyline (-102 | Play to -110)
My Red Sox vs Orioles best bet is on Baltimore to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Orioles Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +140 | 9 -115o / -105u | -118 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -170 | 9 -115o / -105u | -102 |
Red Sox vs Orioles Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Lucas Giolito (BOS) | Stat | RHP Kyle Bradish (BAL) |
|---|---|---|
| 8-2 | W-L | First Start |
| 1.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | – |
| 3.72 / 5.21 | ERA /xERA | – |
| 4.37 / 4.43 | FIP / xFIP | – |
| 1.27 | WHIP | – |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | – |
| 37.5% | GB% | – |
| 92 | Stuff+ | – |
| 100 | Location+ | – |
Tony Sartori’s Red Sox vs Orioles Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Now is the time to sell high on Lucas Giolito. Despite some solid surface-level success this season, his underlying metrics suggest regression is imminent.
Entering this matchup, Giolito owns a 5.21 expected ERA (xERA) and .280 expected batting average (xBA). He also ranks in the bottom third of the league in average exit velocity, strikeout rate and barrel rate.
That regression could arrive against Baltimore, a team Giolito has faced six times with a 4.09 ERA and 1.42 WHIP across those outings.
Following Giolito is a Boston bullpen that also appears due for regression. While the Red Sox’s relief corps carries a relatively low ERA, it ranks 19th in expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP).
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview
The main storyline in this game, however, is the return of Baltimore’s Kyle Bradish, who will take the mound for the first time in 14 months. Bradish emerged as a breakout star during his 2023 sophomore campaign, going 12-7 with a 2.83 ERA and 1.04 WHIP.
He finished fourth in the American League Cy Young Award race that year and picked up right where he left off in 2024. Through his first eight starts last season, Bradish posted a 2-0 record with a 2.75 ERA and 1.07 WHIP before being shut down for Tommy John surgery.
If he returns to form, the Orioles will own a clear starting pitching advantage. Bradish’s underlying metrics in 2024 were even stronger than his traditional numbers as he would have ranked near the top of the league in xERA, xBA, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate if he qualified.
That success is likely to continue against Boston. In his two most recent meetings with the Red Sox, Bradish went 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA and 0.63 WHIP.
Red Sox vs Orioles Prediction, Betting Analysis
It's worth taking a shot on Baltimore at this short price in Bradish's return. While it remains to be seen how long the Orioles will let him stay out there, there's no reason to believe that he can't return to the Cy Young-caliber pitcher he was prior to the surgery.
Meanwhile, both Giolito and the bullpen following him are due for regression. Finally, Boston has played far worse on the road this year than at home.
Pick: Orioles moneyline (-102 | Play to -110)
Moneyline
As mentioned, I'm betting the Orioles moneyline.
Run Line (Spread)
I also like the Orioles to cover, but I find more value in just taking the outright moneyline price.
Over/Under
I lean toward the under, but don't trust Giolito.
Red Sox vs Orioles Betting Trends
