Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s games.
Ryan Minion has that job for Wednesday, July 22.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- New York Yankees ML
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRR
- Mets vs Brewers NRFI
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
- Rockies vs Nationals Under 11.5
- Seattle Mariners ML
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 HRR
- St. Louis Cardinals F5 ML
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 TB
Pirates vs Yankees Picks
The Yankees and Pirates will duke it out on Wednesday afternoon for game 1 of a day-night doubleheader.
Yankee ace Gerrit Cole will take the mound against his former team, while the Bucs will send out righty Mitch Keller.
I’m looking to target some Yankees player prop markets, as several New York hitters have found tremendous success against Keller in the past.
Yankee OF Cody Bellinger is one of those culprits, as he has recorded five hits across 13 at-bats against Keller.
According to BARTOLO, Keller heavily relies on throwing his four-seam fastball over any other pitch in his arsenal, at a hefty 31.4% clip.
Despite that, Keller has allowed a .373 xwOBA to opposing hitters whilst also posting low strikeout and whiff rates.
At just a 93.4 MPH average velocity, this pitch is far from overpowering, and it is unsurprising that Keller has recorded a 5.14 ERA on the season.
He is considerably worse versus left-handed hitters to begin with, and if he leaves his four-seamer or sinker (second-highest usage rate & .433 xwOBA) over the heart of the plate, I expect Bellinger to make him pay by exceeding his 1.5 HRR mark.
As a secondary betting angle, I feel great backing the Yankees coming out on top, as I feel Cole should dazzle versus his former squad.
Picks:
- Yankees ML
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRR
Mets vs Brewers Picks
In what sets up to be a great pitching matchup, right-hander Christian Scott will take the mound for the Mets while the Brewers send out young righty Logan Henderson.
In just five starts on the mound last season, Henderson was phenomenal, recording a 1.78 ERA along with a very efficient 0.99 WHIP across just over 25 frames.
Henderson has picked up right where he left off this season, entering Wednesday with a 2.97 ERA and 0.93 WHIP throughout seven appearances.
While not quite as efficient as his counterpart, Scott is having himself a stellar campaign as well, posting a 2.87 ERA across just shy of 60 innings of work.
Given how impressive both starters have been entering Wednesday’s National League clash, I see NRFI being a valuable angle.
Also, I am willing to take a shot on Brewers’ slugger Jackson Chourio to find success at the plate, despite Scott’s impressive form.
Despite having missed time to start the season after injuring his hand in a World Baseball Classic exhibition game, the Brew Crew’s phenom has been on a tear since returning from the injured list, smashing 13 homers and driving in 39 runs.
While Scott boasts exceptional strikeout prowess with his two primary offerings (4-Seam Fastball & Sweeper) generating 27% / 30% & 35% / 38% strikeout & whiff rates, respectively per BARTOLO, he has shown command issues on the mound, posting a 10.3% walk rate.
Scott’s elevated walk rate could prove problematic versus Chourio’s elite plate discipline, which is why I am willing to bank on Milwaukee’s superstar to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark.
Picks:
- NRFI
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
Giants vs Royals Picks
Landen Roupp of the Giants squares off against Royals’ hurler Seth Lugo, and both have been extremely volatile prior to the All-Star break.
Because of that, I’m looking at Royals’ superstar SS Bobby Witt Jr. to exceed his 1.5 TB mark given his edge over Roupp in two previous encounters.
Per BARTOLO, Roupp heavily relies on his sinker more than any other pitch in his arsenal, throwing his primary pitch at a 35.8% clip, obliterating any of his other offerings.
Despite his clear comfort level throwing his sinker, that pitch has been extremely inefficient thus far, with opposing hitters recording a subpar .365 xwOBA to go along with both an extremely low strikeout and whiff rates of 10% and 13%, respectively.
Despite Witt having struggled against sinkers at the start of his career in the Major Leagues, he now thrives against it, consistently pounding elite exit velocities and hard-hit rates.
Secondly, knowing this, I am also sprinkling a wager on Witt to blast one out of the park.
Picks:
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
Nationals vs Rockies Picks
The Nationals and Rockies will square off on Wednesday afternoon to conclude a three-game set at Coors Field.
It is no surprise to see a massive 11.5 run total on Wednesday considering how much of a hitter-friendly ballpark Coors Field is.
Nationals’ right-hander Cade Cavalli will take the mound, while the Rockies will trot out rookie Gabriel Hughes, who will be making just his third career start.
Starting off, I see value in going under 11.5 with -115 juice.
In 21 starts, Cavalli has recorded a 3.78 ERA to go along with a relatively efficient 1.31 WHIP.
On the other hand, Hughes has been quite impressive too, having recorded a 3.14 ERA with a 1.12 WHIP despite such a small sample size.
Even though two of his first three starts came at Coors, Hughes has surrendered just two earned runs across over eight frames.
As if that was not impressive enough, his third start came against a loaded Dodgers lineup, pitching six innings on his way to recording his first Quality Start of his career.
Picks: Under 11.5
Reds vs Mariners Picks
The Mariners and Reds will square off at T-Mobile Park.
Emerson Hancock will take the mound for the Mariners, while the visiting Reds will start righty Brady Singer.
While Singer is currently posting a 4.56 ERA on the season with a 1.41 WHIP, Hancock is having himself a phenomenal campaign, recording a 3.17 ERA, along with a remarkably efficient 1.01 WHIP.
In addition to Singer’s struggles, he has been previously dominated by several Mariners over the last couple of seasons.
Though many Seattle sluggers set up particularly well with Singer, I like Mariners’ phenom Julio Rodriguez to have a massive day at the plate.
In 12 previous encounters, Rodriguez has had a definitive edge, having recorded four hits off Singer.
Singer’s four-seamer, which happens to be Rodriguez’s favorite pitch to hit, has resulted in opposing hitters having produced a rather substantial .474 xwOBA. That is alarming when having to face a hitter of Rodriguez’s caliber.
Moreover, my two betting angles ahead of Wednesday’s interleague clash will be on both the Mariners moneyline and also for Rodriguez to exceed his 1.5 HRR mark.
Picks:
- Mariners ML
- Julio Rodríguez Over 1.5 HRR
Cardinals vs Angels Picks
Angels’ left-hander Reid Detmers will take the mound, while the Cardinals will start righty Michael McGreevy, who will surely be looking to build upon his elite form heading into today.
In just his third season, McGreevy has been fantastic, recording a 2.92 ERA along with a 1.10 WHIP, ranking inside the top-15 among all starters in both metrics.
While McGreevy has largely dominated, the same can't be said of the Angels’ Detmers, who is currently posting an underwhelming 4.16 ERA.
Given the Cards have a definitive edge on the mound on Wednesday afternoon, my primary betting angle will be on St. Louis’ F5 moneyline.
I am also willing to take a shot on Cards’ slugger Jordan Walker to find success at the plate.
Detmers’ arsenal features a slider-heavy, four-seam fastball mix that is often ineffective against right-handed hitters, particularly those who hit for power like Walker.
The reigning Home Run Derby Champ has a powerful right-handed bat with an overall hitting profile that is built for driving four-seamers and hanging sliders – two of Detmers’ favorite pitches.
Walker has been a force against left-handed pitching, using his length in the box to cover the outer half of the plate and pull high fastballs.
Though Detmers relies on his strikeout prowess and his ability to generate soft contact, Walker’s massive 6-foot-6 frame has allowed him to drive the ball deep versus southpaws.
That said, I favor backing Walker to exceed his 1.5 Total Base mark.
Picks:
- Cardinals F5
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 TB
Minion's MLB Picks and Predictions for Wednesday, July 21
Follow me in the Action Network App for additional bet notifications.
- New York Yankees ML
- Cody Bellinger Over 1.5 HRR
- Mets vs Brewers NRFI
- Jackson Chourio Over 1.5 HRR
- Bobby Witt Jr. Over 1.5 TB
- Bobby Witt Jr. Home Run
- Rockies vs Nationals Under 11.5
- Seattle Mariners ML
- Julio Rodriguez Over 1.5 HRR
- St. Louis Cardinals F5 ML
- Jordan Walker Over 1.5 TB
