The New York Mets host the Boston Red Sox on July 10, 2026. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on Apple TV+.
The Mets are favored by -136 on the moneyline and by +153 on the run line. The Red Sox are +113 on the moneyline and -186 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Mets Prediction
- Red Sox vs Mets Picks: AJ Ewing Over 1.5 H+R+SB, Over 7.5 (-115)
My Red Sox vs Mets best bets are a prop on AJ Ewing and an O/U pick. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Mets Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -186 | 7.5 -111o / -108u | +113 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 7.5 -111o / -108u | -136 |
- Red Sox vs Mets moneyline: Red Sox +113, Mets -136
- Red Sox vs Mets over/under: 7.5 (-111 / -108)
- Red Sox vs Mets spread: Red Sox +1.5 (-186), Mets -1.5 (+153)
Red Sox vs Mets Probable Pitchers
| RHP Sonny Gray (BOS) | Stat | RHP Nolan McLean (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 10-1 | W-L | 6-5 |
| 1.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.0 |
| 2.61 / 3.69 | ERA / xERA | 3.73 / 3.42 |
| 3.61 / 3.57 | FIP / xFIP | 3.52 / 3.43 |
| 16.4% | K-BB% | 19.2% |
| 12.0% | GB% | 12.7% |
| .274 | BABIP | .269 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 108 |
| 97 | Location+ | 96 |
Red Sox vs Mets MLB Betting Preview
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview
Sonny Gray, what can you say? The guy knows how to pitch. His fastball is weak and he usually doesn't pile up a bunch of whiffs, but the numbers are strong once again. Gray, the All-Star snub, has a 2.61 ERA and a 1.10 WHIP in 16 starts. And that's after giving up ten earned runs in his first four starts. Taking those first couple of weeks away leaves him with a 2.08 ERA over his last 12 starts. The K% is up to 26% over that time and he's filling up the strike zone with a solid 7% BB%. This seems to be a nice matchup for him even against a pretty exciting Mets lineup that has some rookies who really swing good bats.
Gray throws a lot of breaking and offspeed stuff. Here's how the Mets break down:
- vs. fastballs: .346 xwOBA
- vs. breaking: .289 xwOBA
- vs. offspeed: .312 xwOBA
Those numbers aren't uncommon across the league. The fastballs give up the hardest contact, but the Mets are definitely on the extreme side of this. The young guys (Ewing, Benge) will typically adjust to the big league quality secondary stuff slower than they get to the heaters.
That said, the lack of a dominant fastball does catch up to him from time to time. If the sweeper isn't hitting the spots, it can go south for Gray. I think the guy is good, but I'm not sure he's "under 7.5" good.
New York Mets Betting Preview
Nolan McLean is similarly hard to predict. He's had three very good starts in his last four for the Mets. He has 30 strikeouts in his last four with just four walks, and aside from his six ER dud against the Cubs, he's been mowing guys down.
McLean's gone more to his fastball the last handful of starts. That's good for him, earning some more strikes because he can throw it in the zone more so than his sweeper and curve. I think this was a result of hitters learning how to lay off the breaking stuff. So he's had to establish the heaters a little bit more. That's good for walks, but not great for the long ball odds. The fastballs get hit hard, as we've seen already in this post, and they are the ones typically going for homers.
That's the setup for the pitchers. And I'm not able to give you much confidence. Both of these guys have elite breaking stuff, which results in high highs and some low lows. You have to have the touch on the spin and grip pitches if you're going to go out there and dominate without having a great fastball.
Red Sox vs Mets Pick, Betting Analysis
The Red Sox are finishing the first half without Willson Contreras. His suspension is being enforced here and we won't see him this weekend. That's a big loss for the Sox. He's their only hitter with an OPS north of .800 in significant playing time this year. This was already a mediocre Red Sox lineup, and it's a really rough-looking unit without their first baseman.
AJ Ewing has really come on for the Mets. We should be gracious with rookies in their first big league stint. You typically see struggles for the first 100-150 PAs before the adjustment comes for the true big league talent. Ewing is hitting .298/.377/.564 since eclipsing 100 MLB PAs. He has a 9.5% Brl% and a 19% K%. He looks like a truly talented player, especially for fantasy leagues and betting formats, because he can steal a ton of bases as well. He's a potential 30-30 guy in the next couple of years. And I'm not sure the betting prices are properly valuing him yet.
He's even hitting righties well with a .543 SLG off of them in the last 80 PAs. The kid is super talented, has clearly added some power this year in his age 20 (!) season, and I want to bet his prices now before they eventually find their way among the better hitters in the league.
My lean is Over 7.5. It's such a low mark. You usually see these lines when there are two studs on the hill. And you can say there are tonight, but the chances of both of these guys really having it tonight seem relatively low, and I think there's a good chance one or both of these teams finds a way to score some runs.
I like Ewing in the H+R+SB market, I like the Mets to win because of the loss of Contreras, and I like the over 7.5.
Pick: AJ Ewing Over 1.5 H+R+SB, Over 7.5 (-115)
