Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis on that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, July 9.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Braves/Pirates Over 9 (-114), 1.14u (Bet through 9.5)
- Guardians/Twins Over 8.5 (-114), 1.14u (Bet through 9)
- A.Kay Under 4.5 Strikeouts -141, 0.71u (Bet to -170)
- Cubs F5 105, 0.5u (Bet to even)
- Athletics F5 +115, 0.6u (Bet to even)
- Athletics +120, 0.4u (Bet to +105)
- J.Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts +125, 0.5u (Bet to even)
- Brewers/Cardinals Under 8.5 (-108), 0.54u (Bet through 8.5)
- N.Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts -136, 0.68u (Bet to -150)
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Braves @ Pirates Picks
A night after Ryan O’Hearn drove in 10 runs by himself against the Braves, the Pirates were shut out by Grant Holmes and four Atlanta relievers on Wednesday night.
This was a bit mind boggling, as the environment (park, umpire, weather) offered an 8-9% boost and the Pittsburgh offense had been red hot. Through Tuesday, they were a single point behind the Dodgers with the second best wRC+ (118) against RHP.
These two teams return for the rubber game of this series at 12:30 ET in Pittsburgh on Thursday with temperatures expected to be in the mid-80s with a light wind blowing out to left-field.
While Pittsburgh is a perfectly neutral run scoring environment, a check in with BARTOLO tells us that the umpire and weather could add a 10% combined boost to run scoring once again.
In addition to that fierce Pittsburgh offense, whose projected lineup has an average 136 wRC+ over the last 30 days (all stats through Tuesday) and 127 wRC+ against RHP this year, we’re looking at the bottom of both rotations.
After a hot start, Bryce Elder’s 4.01 ERA is within a quarter run of most estimators aside from the bookending 3.61 xERA (4.7% Barrels/BBE) and 4.80 BotERA (93 Pitching+).
Mitch Keller’s 5.02 ERA exceeds his contact neutral estimators (4.69 SIERA, 4.54 xFIP) and pitch modeling (4.23 BotERA, 95 Pitching+), but is below his 5.37 xERA.
It appears that we have the ingredients of another high scoring game in Pittsburgh.
Adding to the above a below average Pittsburgh defense (projected lineup -8 FRV) will be playing in front of a bullpen that’s bottom third of the league both by last 30 day estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA average) and BARTOLO rankings (21st).
It’s another hot, early mid-week game where defenses tend to not be at their sharpest either.
Picks: Over 9 (-114), 1.14u (Bet through 9.5)
Guardians @ Twins Picks
I’d wager that Minnesota’s Target Field is the most positive run environment that the fewest people realize is a positive run environment. It plays 6% above average on an normal day and Thursday afternoon’s forecast could another 3-5% on top of that.
Scheduled umpire Ryan Blakney doesn’t add much more (+0.4% via BARTOLO), but he shouldn’t hinder our purposes either.
If you haven’t guessed yet, that purpose is the over (currently 8.5 -114 DK).
Gavin Williams has the potential to shut down any offense when he’s on his game, but that’s not always the case and his 3.89 ERA fits aligns well with his wide estimator range (3.22 xFIP – 4.55 xERA).
The issues are almost entirely in his contact profile this year, allowing 12.1% Barrels/BBE and a 48.3 HardHit%. Conditions are not favorable for him to be successful if he doesn’t hold his 28.3 K% against an offense that doesn’t strike out a lot.
Even without Byron Buxton, the projected Minnesota lineup has averaged a 145 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 122 against RHP.
Bailey Ober is one of several returning pitchers on Thursday and a peak at BARTOLO tells you all you need to know about how he was pitching prior to hitting the IL. Add to that reports of his velocity further dipping in rehab outings and suddenly a projected Guardians lineup with an 87 wRC+ against RHP and 79 wRC+ over the last 30 days looks competent.
Oh, Ober has also allowed LHBs a .348 wOBA and .340 xwOBA this year. The one thing this Cleveland team has an abundance of is LHBs.
Cleveland does have a strong defense, especially up the middle, but the projected Minnesota defense has a more negative FRV (Fielding Run Value) than the Cleveland one has a positive one by 2 FRV. You could apply the same math and get the same results on team level stats like Runs Prevented and OAA.
Both bullpens have bottom half of the league estimators over the last 30 days with the Twins bottom five by both the 30 day standard and BARTOLO rankings.
Even if Williams pitches well, the only obstacle to the Cleveland offense may be themselves.
Bet through 9, but reduce to half unit above 8.5.
Picks: Over 8.5 (-114), 1.14u (Bet though 9)
Red Sox @ White Sox Picks
While Anthony Kay has righted the ship somewhat after a rough start, he’s struck out exactly 2 in three of his last four starts and fewer than five in five of his last seven.
He owns a 10.4 SwStr% during this stretch, but skewed by single game marks of 19.1% and 14.9%.
Additionally, his strikeout rate drops to a paltry 14% against RHBs this season and averaging just 21 batters faced per start and only more than 22 once over this seven start span, he’s projected to face 13 batters with the platoon advantage and potentially as many as 15, depending whether Jarren Duran or a RHB hit leadoff.
There’s also the fact that the first 21 batters through the projected lineup average just an 18.8 K% against LHP. Whatever problems the Red Sox have had, they still smoke LHP (projected lineup 132 wRC+, .203 ISO).
Finally, the environment in which Kay is expected to be pitching (park, umpire, weather) could decrease strikeouts 8-9%.
It’s going to be difficult for him to reach the five strikeouts needed for his strikeout prop on Thursday.
Picks: A.Kay Under 4.5 Strikeouts -141, 0.71u (Bet to -170)
Cubs @ Orioles Picks
For good reason, the Cubs suspected that they could help a pitcher with a 6.09 ERA that was more than a ru above all of his estimators with an elite defense that leads the league in Runs Prevented (33) and OAA (40), neither by a small margin either.
It went well enough with 2 runs over 5.2 innings in his Cub debut in Milwaukee, but he certainly didn’t appear “fixed” when the Cardinals torched for 10 runs in his first Wrigley home start. David Peterson's ERA is now at 6.75.
The thing is, that was an outlier start for Peterson in a crazy season and I say that because he generated just two ground balls in that start, dragging his season ground ball rate down to 47.6%. It was 51.1% at the time of the trade.
Aside from a small decrease in sliders in a small enough sample that it could have been matchup dependent, the Cubs haven’t really changed anything with in Peterson's pitch usage pattern yet, so he shouldn't be suddenly an extreme fly ball pitcher.
Peterson has by no means been good, but his contact neutral estimators are below four and a half and the Cubs are probably correct to believe that this defense could push him into near average pitcher range.
Trevor Rogers has struggled also, but to a much lesser degree. His 4.70 ERA is about one-third of a run above my weighted estimators and also one-third of a run below my weighted estimators for Peterson.
However, Rogers has posted just a 1.80 ERA over the last month with a 4.55 SIERA. He walked five Reds last time out and didn’t allow a run. The 39.8 HardHit% over the last 30 days is around league average and what he’s allowed for the season. It’s just that only one of his last five barrels has left the park.
One of the biggest gaps in this game is between the offenses. It seems like the Orioles haven’t hit LHP well for years. Even with the additions of Taylor Ward and Pete Alonso, their projected lineup averages a 92 wRC+ and .142 ISO against southpaws this year.
Conversely, the Cubs have smashed LHP (116 wRC+ as a team). Their projected lineup has a 106 wRC+ against lefties, but a 129 wRC+ over the last 30 days, as they’ve heated up again after they cooled off after initially starting the season on a heater.
The biggest gap in this game might be defensively. By projected lineups again, the Cubs would have a 46 FRV edge.
The Cubs do have one of the worst bullpens in the game right now, which results in showing more value in an F5 line currently at +105 on Bet365. There’s not much wiggle room, as I can only endorse this to even money.
Picks: Cubs F5 +105, 0.5u (Bet to even)
A's @ Tigers Picks
I’ll start with he punch line.
I have the A’s favored in this game.
Framber Valdez has been an average pitcher at best this season. His 4.29 ERA sits right in between a tight estimator range running from a 4.20 dERA to a 4.46 SIERA that tells you definitively who he is. In fact, that dERA is his only estimator below his ERA.
This is the third season in a row of K-BB decline for Valdez, now in the single digits at 9.5%. It’s his worst mark in any season of more than 70 innings.
His ground ball rate is in the second season of decline and at 51.6% it’s a career low without any qualifier.
Considering that Valdez has never been great at limiting hard contact without a season below 41.6% using the above innings qualifier again, well, the Tigers may have themselves an expensive back end of the rotation pitcher.
Alternatively, Jack Perkins has been far, far, far better than his 6.75 ERA, which you could nearly cut in half considering the underlying performance.
His worst estimator (4.07 xERA) is better than Valdez’s best.
The questions are whether you believe a .345 BABIP and 57.5 LOB% are anywhere near sustainable.
The A’s have a bad defense, though their LHP lineup is nearly average at -4 FRV, but no, the BABIP and strand rate are not sustainable and Perkins has a 20 K-BB% away from Sacramento.
It’s fair if you only want to include his six starts and remove the bullpen work: 18.3 K-BB%, 9.5% Barrels/BBE, 41.9 HardHit%, 5.08 xERA, 3.97 xFIP).
He takes a little bit of a hit in transition to a starting role, but it’s still better than Valdez.
One of Perkins’ biggest issues is a 34.6 GB% (28.4% as a starter) that could give him problems anywhere, but should play a lot better in Detroit than Sacramento.
By team (99 wRC+) or projected lineup (100 wRC+), the Tigers are perfectly average against RHP. The A’s, meanwhile, smoke lefties (106, 137). That latter number (projected lineup) comes with an average .216 ISO.
The A’s have moderate edges in starting pitching and lineup, while the projected defenses are only 5 FRV apart. Both projected lineups have 3 BRR (Base Running Runs).
The Tigers do have better bullpen estimators over the last 30 days by three-quarters of a run. BARTOLO has the yearly rankings a lot closer, favoring the A’s, but I’m going to split a unit on the team I believe should be favored in 60/40 fashion.
Picks: Athletics F5 +115, 0.6u (Bet to even), Athletics +120, 0.5u (Bet to +105)
Phillies @ Reds Picks
Jesus Luzardo has racked up at least eight strikeouts in four of his last five starts and has had a single digit SwStr% in just one start this year.
He also doesn’t have much of a split, striking out batters from either side of the plate at least 27.9% of the time this year.
Averaging a bit over 24 batters faced per start this year and 25 over his last five starts, the more contact prone batters are likely to reside in the bottom third of the Cincinnati order with the first 25 he’d be likely to face averaging a 25.3 K% against LHP this year.
Luzardo only gets a 3-4% environmental bump (park, umpire, weather), but with his stuff in this matchup, I have him striking out around one-third of the batters he faces on average, which gives us room to spare with the price at 7.5 +125.
Picks: J.Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts +125, 0.5u (Bet to even)
Brewers @ Cardinals Picks
I’m a Logan Henderson fan and think he could have been another Milwaukee breakout this season if he hadn’t been injured five starts into his season. The 3.21 wFIP BARTOLO exhibits tells you how well he was pitching (26.7 K-BB%, 29.6 GB%).
His largest small sample problem was an 18.5 GB% that led to five of his 16 hard hit batted balls coming from barrels.
That may not be a problem here. Do you know which park suppresses home runs the most?
That would be Busch Stadium in St Louis at 24%.
Andre Pallante comparatively has just a 17.6 K%, but with most of his contact on the ground (53.9%) and few walks (6.8%), he’s been able to keep his 3.60 ERA about one-third of a run below his weighted estimators because the Cardinals have such a strong defense (15 Runs Prevented, 21 OAA, projected defense 23 FRV).
As long as he keeps doing those good things and keeps the same defense behind him, that may be sustainable with a lower strikeout rate.
The Brewers have a scrappy offense, but just a team 98 wRC+ on the road. The projected lineup includes three batters above a .220 ISO against RHP, but nobody else reaching .140.
It’s a navigable, though not easy matchup if Pallante can keep grinding ground balls without free passes.
The projected St Lous lineup has a 105 wRC+, but just .153 ISO against RHIP. They have just a 99 wRC+ over the last 30 days and 89 wRC+ at home. Also a navigable lineup.
We’ve already talked about a strong Cardinal defense, but the Brewer one is more neutral, which still shouldn't hurt the under.
Bullpens…well, those are a problem. Both have bottom third of the league estimators over the last 30 days, but while St Louis is BARTOLO’s 27th ranked bullpen, the Brewers are 12th.
Finally, Busch plays 4% below average as a run environment without any weather sources suggesting much of an impact.
Scheduled umpire Todd Tichenor does bring this 2.4% back toward average, but I still believe 8.5 runs is a bit much for this matchup in a power suppressing park. Action Labs has even tracked a reverse line move on the total.
Picks: Under 8.5 (-108), 0.54u (Bet through 8.5)
Angels @ Rangers Picks
The Angels strike out a ton, which is something Trout’s return (24.5% vs RHP) doesn’t help. Seven of their nine projected starters on Thursday have struck out at least 23.9% of the time against RHP this season.
Nathan Eovaldi has struck out exactly nine in three straight starts and while he hasn’t had a double digit punchout game this season, he’s reached at least seven in 10 of 17 starts this year, including four of just six at home.
Pitching at home in Texas should give him a 4% boost on Thursday, which is how the park effects strikeouts with the roof closed.
Finally, while scheduled home plate umpire is one of the most run negative umpires in the league, he doesn’t increase strikeouts nearly as much, but does add another 1% on average.
Picks: N.Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts -136, 0.68u (Bet to -150)
Trollo's MLB Picks and Predictions for Thursday, July 9
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- Braves/Pirates Over 9 (-114), 1.14u (Bet through 9.5)
- Guardians/Twins Over 8.5 (-114), 1.14u (Bet through 9)
- A.Kay Under 4.5 Strikeouts -141, 0.71u (Bet to -170)
- Cubs F5 105, 0.5u (Bet to even)
- Athletics F5 +115, 0.6u (Bet to even)
- Athletics +120, 0.4u (Bet to +105)
- J.Luzardo Over 7.5 Strikeouts +125, 0.5u (Bet to even)
- Brewers/Cardinals Under 8.5 (-108), 0.54u (Bet through 8.5)
- N.Eovaldi Over 6.5 Strikeouts -136, 0.68u (Bet to -150)
