The St. Louis Cardinals host the Boston Red Sox on April 10, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on NESN.
The Red Sox are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 7.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Red Sox vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Prediction
- Red Sox vs Cardinals Pick: Red Sox ML (-150 or Better)
My Red Sox vs Cardinals best bet is on Boston's ML. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Odds
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | -142 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -150 | 7.5 -105o / -115u | +120 |
- Red Sox vs Cardinals spread: Red Sox -1.5 (+125), Cardinals +1.5 (-150)
- Red Sox vs Cardinals over/under: 7.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Red Sox vs Cardinals moneyline: Red Sox -142, Cardinals +120
Red Sox vs Cardinals Pitchers
| Connelly Early (LHP) | Stat | Dustin May (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 0-0 | W-L | 0-2 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 2.89 / 5.05 | ERA / xERA | 15.95 / 6.94 |
| 2.93 / 3.87 | FIP / xFIP | 6.42 / 5.10 |
| 1.50 | WHIP | 2.73 |
| 10.0% | K-BB% | 10% |
| 45.8% | GB% | 32.1% |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 99 |
| 98 | Location+ | 93 |
Red Sox vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
I love Connelly Early. He’s lost some velocity on his fastball, but his secondary stuff is nasty. His changeup drops a ton, and he’s running a 107 Stuff+ on his curveball. He’s also throwing his secondary stuff more at the expense of his fastball, and it’s always a positive when a pitcher throws his better pitches more.
After starting at Great American Ballpark and at Fenway against the Padres, I think Early is due for a big start against the Cardinals.
I am slightly worried because the Cardinals have been mashing Southpaws (128 wRC+, fourth), but I don’t think that’s representative of the lineup’s true talent level. While I think the Cardinals are slightly underrated, I don’t think they’re a top-five lineup.
The Red Sox have looked horrific, but I don’t think the lineup is as bad as they’ve performed. They have some talent, and if there’s ever a time to wake up, it’s against Dustin May.
May is throwing harder than ever, picking up nearly two ticks of velocity year over year. But the command is brutal. He can’t locate anything, and he’s not missing bats — his swinging-strike rate is down 3% year over year.
So, hitters are teeing off on his poorly located fastball-sinker-sweeper combos, which are going faster and resulting in higher exit velocities.
I hate both these bullpens, but I trust Boston’s more by default, as the Cardinals have a bottom-10 bullpen (20th in Pitching+, 29th in xFIP). I also expect them to lean more on their bullpen depth because May can’t go deep into games.
If Boston can get to Garrett Whitlock and Aroldis Chapman with a lead, I’ll feel pretty good.
Red Sox vs Cardinals Picks
Sean Zerillo projects Boston’s ML over -160, while BallParkPal projects it over -190.
I’ll take it at -150 or better.
Pick: Red Sox ML (-150 or Better)
