MLB Odds & Picks for Braves vs. Phillies: Why to Bet the Under

MLB Odds & Picks for Braves vs. Phillies: Why to Bet the Under article feature image

Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images. Pictured: Aaron Nola

  • The Phillies are strong home favorites in tonight's matchup against the Braves.
  • Aaron Nola takes the mound for Philadelphia, and he'll be opposed by Atlanta's Ian Anderson.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Braves vs. Phillies Odds

Braves Odds+130
Phillies Odds-155
Over/Under8.5 (-110 / -110)
Time6:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Braves' torrid hot streak continued into this series as they have already taken the first two games against the Phillies.

They are now in line to face the Phillies ace, Aaron Nola, who has been magnificent this season as he enters this start with a 2.98 ERA and WHIP of 0.90. This will be Nola's second outing against Atlanta this season, but this is a very different team than the one he faced back in May.

Toeing the slab for Atlanta in this one will be Ian Anderson. He has had an up-and-down campaign thus far as he enters with a 6-4 record, but his ERA sits at 4.60 and his WHIP is 1.45. However, he'll have a bit of an edge today as the Phillies have not yet put together a strong offensive showing in this series.

Will the absence of Bryce Harper continue to loom large? Or can Nola stop the bleeding and get his club back on track? Let's take a closer look to find out.

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Expect Nola to Cool Off Braves Hot Bats

Nola's last start against Atlanta came at the end of May, and he was dominant in that outing. He pitched 8 1/3 innings while allowing just one run and striking out 10. However, that start came just days before the Braves would flip the switch in June. Atlanta rattled off 14-straight victories to begin the month and are now 21-3 for the month entering the day.

The meat of the Braves' order has been on fire as Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Ronald Acuna Jr., Marcell Ozuna and Dansby Swanson have been mashing all month long, but Nola may be their kryptonite this evening. While his peripheral are excellent, the real reason behind his dominance lies underneath.

Nola has displayed impeccable command of his arsenal this season. He enters this outing in the top two percent of all qualified pitchers in walk rate but is also in the top 30 percent in chase rate. He's been able to execute both in and outside of the strike zone, which has forced the opposition to hit his pitch, and it has produced elite results.

Nola also enters this start in the top 20 percent of the majors in hard-hit rate, xBA and xERA. These rankings are a direct result of the command of his entire arsenal. Nola will utilize every pitch he's got throughout an outing to keep hitters off-balanced, and it's been effective thus far as his top three most thrown pitches each have BAA under .200.

The Braves may be on fire, but Nola's a firehose waiting to cool them down tonight.

Can the Phillies Show Signs of Life?

Harper breaking his thumb in the series against San Diego was deflating not only for the Phillies but the baseball world as well. Harper looked to be well on the way to another MVP-caliber season; unfortunately, now we won't see him for another two months. His impact on this offense was immense, and his presence has left a big hole in the middle of it.

In the first few games without Harper, the Phillies have yet to light up the scoreboard. While a matchup against Anderson may do the trick, he's had quite a bit of success against the Phillies in his career.

Entering this start, Anderson has compiled 50 at-bats against the current Phillies lineup. They have hit just .140 with three doubles and 14 strikeouts in those matchups.

The Phillies have plenty of threats left in their lineup with Kyle Schwarber, Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos all swinging the bat well, but Anderson has been an enigma as, despite the tons of hard contact, he's surrendered; he's also in the top 15 in barrel rate.

This is the matchup where the Phillies lineup should wake up, but this will look like a typical Anderson outing. There will be runs allowed, but no more than four allowed, and he will get his share of punchouts to help him get through five innings.

Braves-Phillies Pick

This matchup has all signs pointing towards the Phillies. We should see another terrific outing from Nola as he looks to have put it all together once again, and his counterpart has struggled at times this season.

However, Anderson has a great history against the Phillies and has done a great job of limiting the damage even when he doesn't have his best stuff.

All of that is a recipe for the under.

Pick: Under 8.5

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