Braves vs White Sox Pick Today | MLB Odds, Predictions (Monday, April 1)

The Braves dropped a close one to the Phillies on Sunday but looked every bit a World Series contender through the first weekend. Atlanta outscored Philadelphia 25-12 in the series.

Now the Braves head up to Chicago for a three-game set with the White Sox before their home opener Friday. It is going to be a very long season in the South Side of Chicago.

The White Sox already traded Dylan Cease before the season began and will likely sell off more pieces throughout the season. Chicago was swept by the Tigers to begin the season and now welcomes the mighty Braves to town.

Here is my Braves vs. White Sox preview and pick for Monday.

In what is likely his final season, Charlie Morton will get the ball Monday for Atlanta. The 40-year-old is the second-oldest player in the league. Morton is like vanilla ice cream; he is never going to wow you or be your first choice, but you know exactly what you are going to get and he gets the job done every time.

Through 16 big league seasons, Morton has posted a career 4.00 ERA. He has started at least 25 games in each of the last six full seasons and is coming off a 3.64 ERA last season.

Morton is going to try to do two things: throw his fastball to generate a ground ball or bury his curveball for a swing-and-miss. Morton has consistently had one of the best curveballs in the game. His curveball had a Run Value of 25 last season, ranking as the best curveball in the league and the fifth-best pitch overall. Opponents hit just .177 with a 37.1% strikeout rate against Morton’s breaking ball.

What even needs to be said about this Braves offense? They rake. Atlanta led the league in runs, home runs, wOBA, wRC+ and pretty much every other offensive category last season.

Ronald Acuña Jr. ran away with the MVP last season and he, Matt Olson and Austin Riley are expected to be right back in the mix again this season. They are as deep on offense as any team in the league, and once you get into trouble it can snowball in a hurry.

Opposing Morton will be Chris Flexen, who will be making his White Sox debut. It has been an up-and-down career for Flexen. After starting his career with the Mets, he struggled with injuries and inconsistency.

Flexen was designated for assignment after the 2019 season and signed with the Doosan Bears of the KBO. That ended up being a blessing in disguise, as Flexen was able to play baseball during the 2020 shutdown. He was terrific in the KBO, pitching to a 3.01 ERA and 10.2 K/9 rate.

This earned him a contract with the Seattle Mariners in 2021, when he put together a legendary season that will live in this writer's heart forever. Not only did Flexen post a 3.61 ERA and finish the season ranked seventh in the American League in ERA and second in wins, but most importantly, he was the most profitable pitcher in the league to bet on in 2021. If you bet on Seattle in every Flexen start, you went 22-9 and were up $1,588 with a 51.2% ROI. If you follow me on Twitter, you know that I bet him in most of those starts and will love him forever.

Flexen was solid again in 2022, but his numbers fell off a cliff last season. He finished with a 6.86 ERA between Seattle and Colorado. He struggled to miss bats and gave up a ton of hard contact. Now, he heads to Chicago looking to regain his form from a few years ago.

The White Sox offense really underperformed last season, but they do at least have a few talented pieces. Luis Robert Jr. and Eloy Jiménez are still All-Star caliber bats and Andrew Vaughn is a very underrated player. Robert already has a pair of home runs through the first three games.

It’s hard for me to find much value in this game. The White Sox are going to be a hard team to bet this year against any team, but especially the Braves. And I’ll pretty much never lay more than -200 in a baseball game.

I am going to fully admit my bias here because these are two of my favorite starting pitchers and I have such a soft spot for them. This probably isn’t the “smart” play. If you want to take a strong mathematical play, Sean Zerillo’s projections have value on the Over.

However, sometimes gambling is just about having fun. So I am going to sweat it out with two guys I love… for one inning.

That’s right folks, a Monday afternoon NRFI (no runs first inning) sweat. What could be more fun than nervously watching Flexen face one of the scariest top-of-the-orders in baseball?

Throughout his career, Flexen has been significantly better the first time through the order. He has a career 3.66 ERA the first time through the batting order that balloons to 5.29 the second time and 6.58 the third time.

I am going to put my faith in two pitchers who have made me a lot of money over the years, and hope they can each get me three outs for old times' sake. Who’s riding with me?

Pick: No Runs First Inning (+100 | Play to -105)

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