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Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Fried, Braves (May 7)

Brewers vs. Braves Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Fried, Braves (May 7) article feature image
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Photo by Sarah Stier/Getty Images. Pictured: Max Fried (Braves)

  • The Brewers take on the Braves in game two of their three-game set on Saturday.
  • Milwaukee has Corbin Burnes on the hill, but he has allowed some hard-hit balls and home runs.
  • With Max Fried opposing Burnes, Kenny Ducey is backing the home team.

Brewers vs. Braves Odds

Brewers Odds -106
Braves Odds -110
Over/Under 7 (+102 / -124)
Time 7:20 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Two of the game’s best starters will take the center stage on Saturday when the Brewers visit the Braves in Atlanta.

With the game set as a pick ’em, is there any value in either side?

Let’s further examine this matchup below.

Can Any Team Stop Brew Crew?

The Brewers are on some kind of roll here, winning nine of 10. It has to be said that it kind of came out of nowhere.

Playing the Pirates, Cubs and Reds in succession certainly has something to do with it, but even the Yankees struggle at times to beat up this badly on the Orioles — same with the Dodgers on the Diamondbacks.

On top of that, the Brewers did well to carry over this good feeling into the weekend, taking the first of a three-game set with the Braves by a score of 6-3 on Friday.

Milwaukee was lifted by Eric Lauer in that game, who allowed just a run on two hits and three walks with eight strikeouts over 6 1/3 innings.

It will hope to get a similar performance on Saturday from Corbin Burnes, who has gone right back to dominating this season. His strikeout rate is once again above 35% to rank among the best in the league, and his 1.93 ERA is backed by a 2.36 xERA.

If there’s one troubling number, it’s the four homers Burnes has allowed, which would coincide with a 42% hard-hit rate.

It’s also worth noting here that the Brewers — who started the season quite poorly at the plate — now rank 10th in wRC+. While they’ve struck out in 24.7% of plate appearances, they’ve also walked in 9.1% of them.


Luck to Turn Things for Braves?

The story here with the Atlanta Braves continues to be their bad luck at the plate, at least as told by Statcast. They currently sit fifth in barrels per plate appearance and 10th in hard-hit rate.

As a result, they have registered a .348 xwOBA and .260 expected batting average, which would strongly indicate they’ve been making some great contact at the plate.

With that said, Atlanta has hit just .223 with a .307 wOBA. The 37-point difference in batting average is the fourth-largest gap in baseball, and the 41-point gap in wOBA is the third-largest.

It would appear luck is set to turn things around at any time now, and while Burnes isn’t necessarily the most exciting player to face when you’re looking for better luck, perhaps his hard-hit rate provides some hope.

Max Fried will be the starter for Atlanta, and ever since his rocky season-opening start against the Reds of all teams, he’s been the Fried of old. His 3.00 ERA is nearly identical to his 3.04 ERA from a season ago, as is his 23.1% strikeout rate.

His hard-hit rate has dropped five points and after walking a batter in the aforementioned start against the Reds, he hasn’t issued another free pass in four starts.

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Brewers-Braves Pick

Burnes and Fried have both been great, and with that, this line is appropriately close.

In addition to that, the Brewers’ current position inside the top five in xwOBA would lead you to believe their offense is right up there with Atlanta’s.

I think there’s a serious gap in the competition both teams have faced, though, and while the Brewers have made good contact, that’s going to be a lot more difficult against the Braves.

With Fried pitching extremely well, the Braves may only need one or two big blows to get this victory. Burnes has had some issues with allowing home runs and dangerously hard-hit balls, and against one of the exit velocity leaders in the league, I think he may falter one or two times.

I’ll take the Braves at this glorious price.

Pick: Braves ML (-110)

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