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MLB Odds, Picks for Brewers vs. Dodgers: Don’t Be Fooled by This Deceiving Starter

MLB Odds, Picks for Brewers vs. Dodgers: Don’t Be Fooled by This Deceiving Starter article feature image
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Joe Robbins/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Dodgers starting pitcher Tony Gonsolin

  • Starters Corbin Burnes and Tony Gonsolin meet their opposing lineups for the second time in a week.
  • This could be a bounce-back spot for Burnes and a fade opportunity for his counterpart.
  • Nicholas Martin explains why he's backing the Brew Crew in the first half of the game.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Odds

Brewers Odds +132
Dodgers Odds -156
Over/Under 7 (-120 / -102)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

Corbin Burnes and Tony Gonsolin will duel Tuesday in Los Angeles, with each having faced these formidable lineups just last week in Milwaukee.

Burnes allowed three earned runs through 5.2 innings in Thursday’s start, but he managed to steal a victory without having his best outing behind a strong offensive performance.

Gonsolin was again excellent in Wednesday’s contest, allowing no earned runs and even managing to get through a full seven innings.

Will Gonsolin manage a similar result Tuesday?

Bounce-back spot for Milwaukee Brewers’ Corbin Burnes?

Corbin Burnes managed to get through just 5 1/3 innings Thursday against the Dodgers, but even in what was not his best outing, he still managed to strike out 25% of batters and allowed an xBA of just .229.

Burnes has allowed more than three earned runs in back-to-back outings only one time in 2022, and just twice in the last two seasons combined.

Which could be taken as a strong indication that he will bounce back after a bad showing, or just that it is simply that unlikely that two straight offenses are able manage more than that.

Throughout the month of August, Burnes’ QOPA average has actually risen to a stellar mark of 4.95, and his stuff certainly appears to be on par with what we are used to seeing even if a 3.38 ERA throughout 24 innings this month is well below what we expect.

Milwaukee has hit to considerably better splits against right-handed pitching this season, with a wRC+ of 110 throughout those ABs, and a .328 woba.

Milwaukee managed next to nothing against Gonsolin Wednesday. However, they did hard-hit 57% of balls in that outing, and on average that should mean far more hits than the two the Brewers actually managed.

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Dodgers starter Tony Gonsolin’s Deceiving Win Total?

Gonsolin has broken through with a truly spectacular season and will have the opportunity to grab what would be an NL-leading 16th win Tuesday at home, even while pitching seven full innings only three times this season.

Gonsolin’s xFIP of 3.71 and xERA of 3.00 suggest things could be notably worse playing without the Dodgers’ stellar defense, and even still we should be looking for some regression moving forward considering those numbers.

The Dodgers offense has been truly elite against right-handed pitching this season and will again look to breakthrough with a strong performance versus one of the league’s best in Burnes.

Los Angeles has hit to a 126 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and has remained in strong form of late with a wRC+ of 130 throughout the last month of play.

Brewers-Dodgers Pick

Although it goes as potentially the exact opposite script as we saw from each of these starters last week in Milwaukee, I actually believe the value in this spot is backing Burnes to dominate early and lead the Brewers to a win throughout the first five innings of this contest.

Burnes has remained stellar of late, and I believe is quietly still a level beyond Gonsolin, even if a lot of the surface-level stats suggest that is not the case. He still holds a considerably better K/BB ratio compared to Gonsolin, and that number can typically be one of the crucial indicators of success for pitchers.

Burnes is backed by a notably worse offense, and therefore Milwaukee is +120 to lead after 5 innings. But considering Burnes’ level of dominance, I see value looking toward that number, especially as Milwaukee’s splits versus righties are far more reasonable.

Pick: Brewers 5 Innings Moneyline +120 (Play to +110)

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