The Miami Marlins host the St. Louis Cardinals on April 20, 2026. First pitch from loanDepot park is scheduled for 6:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MIAM.
The Marlins are favored by -133 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +110 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Marlins prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Marlins Prediction
- Cardinals vs Marlins Pick: Michael McGreevy Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
My Cardinals vs Marlins best bet is Michael McGreevy to stay under his walk prop. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Marlins Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -186 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | +113 |
| Marlins Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +153 | 8.5 -110o / -110u | -136 |
- Cardinals vs Marlins moneyline: Cardinals +110, Marlins -133
- Cardinals vs Marlins over/under: 8.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Cardinals vs Marlins spread: Marlins -1.5 (+155 ), Cardinals +1.5 (-187)
Cardinals vs Marlins Probable Pitchers
| Michael McGreevy (RHP) | Stat | Max Meyer (RHP) |
|---|---|---|
| 1-1 | W-L | 1-0 |
| 0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.4 |
| 2.49/7.44 | ERA / xERA | 4.12/5.26 |
| 4.24/4.27 | FIP / xFIP | 3.79/3.86 |
| 0.83 | WHIP | 1.32 |
| 11.0 | K-BB% | 12.5 |
| 40.3 | GB% | 41.4 |
| 76 | Stuff+ | 95 |
| 114 | Location+ | 109 |
Cardinals vs Marlins MLB Betting Preview
We’ve been high on Michael McGreevy all year, and I’m back on him again tonight against the Marlins.
McGreevy is a classic throwback pitcher for the Cardinals. He doesn’t strike many guys out, but more importantly, he doesn’t walk anyone either. Through his first four starts this season, his walk rate and strikeout rate look exactly like they did in previous years.
While he’s been a bit fortunate on run prevention so far, that’s not our focus today. We’re strictly targeting his elite control.
At -140, the Under 1.5 Walks number feels generous. McGreevy has shown an extreme unwillingness to issue free passes, and the Marlins are one of the least patient teams in baseball. They currently rank in the bottom 10 in walk rate this season, and last year they finished with the 6th-lowest walk rate in the majors.
This year’s lineup isn’t much different in that regard.McGreevy walked two batters in his season debut against Tampa Bay, but has walked just one batter total across his last three starts. Over his 23 career starts, he’s issued only 25 walks — basically a hair over one walk per start. That kind of control is exactly what we’re banking on here.
I expect this line to move to the -170 or -190 range as the season progresses if these trends continue, so getting it at -140 is excellent value right now.
The Marlins simply don’t work counts. They swing early and often, which plays right into McGreevy’s hands. Even with some recent additions to the lineup, this remains a very aggressive, low-walk group.
Pick: Michael McGreevy Under 1.5 Walks Allowed
