The St. Louis Cardinals host the Chicago Cubs on May 29, 2026. First pitch from Busch Stadium is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Cubs are favored by -142 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Cardinals are +120 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cubs vs Cardinals prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cubs vs Cardinals Prediction
- Cubs vs Cardinals Pick: Jordan Walker Home Run | Michael Busch Over 1.5 HRR
My Cubs vs Cardinals best bet is Jordan Walker to hit a home run, and Michael Busch over 1.5 HRR. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cubs vs Cardinals Odds
| Cubs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +120 | 8 -110o / -110u | -142 |
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -144 | 8 -110o / -110u | +120 |
- Cubs vs Cardinals moneyline: Cubs -142, Cardinals +120
- Cubs vs Cardinals over/under: 8 (-110 / -110)
- Cubs vs Cardinals spread: Cubs -1.5 (+120), Cardinals +1.5 (-144)
Cubs vs Cardinals Probable Pitchers
| LHP Shota Imanaga (CHC) | Stat | RHP Kyle Leahy (STL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-5 | W-L | 5-3 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | -0.1 |
| 4.04 / 3.40 | ERA / xERA | 4.44 / 6.29 |
| 3.84 / 3.52 | FIP / xFIP | 4.94 / 4.19 |
| 19.2% | K-BB% | 8.7% |
| 36.8% | GB% | 45.6% |
| .253 | BABIP | .325 |
| 92 | Stuff+ | 89 |
| 109 | Location+ | 103 |
Cubs vs Cardinals MLB Betting Preview
Chicago Cubs Betting Preview: Imanaga is Vulnerable
The Cubs ended their ten-game losing streak on Wednesday, and they're looking to climb right back to the top of the NL Central in this divisional series with the Cardinals.
They've gotten no help from tonight's starter, Shota Imanaga, during this bad stretch of baseball. Shota has given up 15 earned runs in his last two starts, raising his season ERA from 2.48 to 4.18 in just two starts.
And that's kind of the story with Imanaga. Going back to last year, Imanaga's 37% FB% is the highest in baseball among pitchers with at least 20 starts. He's given up one homer for every 20 batters he's faced in these last two seasons, the fourth-worst rate in Major League Baseball.
Giving up a ton of fly balls is a dangerous way to play the game at the highest level. Through Shota's first nine starts, it hadn't hurt him, surrendering just five dingers, but he's doubled that in his last two starts. And he doesn't discriminate, giving up six homers to righties and four to lefties — very progressive of him.
So we're always looking for heavy fly ball hitters to bet on for homers against Imanaga, but we'll get back to that in the Cardinals section.
The Cubs are looking at a matchup against Kyle Leahy in this one. Leahy is a converted reliever who isn't having the best time in the rotation for the Red Birds. He sports a 4.44 ERA with a 1.58 WHIP this year on a poor 8.7% K-BB%, so he's very hittable, and he'll give up free passes at a worse-than-average rate with it.
We're looking for Cubs lefties for H+R+RBI against Leahy. It's easy to get on base against the guy. Not as easy to hit the long ball, as he's been a touch above the league average in home run allowance.
But Michael Buschis the guy we're looking at on the Cubs side. He's had a phenomanl May after a very slow start to the season. Over his last 100 PAs against righties, he's hitting .295/.451/.564 with a 16.7% Brl%, an 18.6% K%, and a very high 19.6% BB%.
That's a lot of walks.
And it does take away his home run chances since he's walking to first in a fifth of his plate appearances. We don't want to bet a homer on Busch, necessarily, but we're very likely to see him run the bases in some fashion in this game.
The Cubs' best hitter against righties this year by xwOBA is Michael Conforto. The veteran has a .943 OPS and a .382 xwOBA against. He's quite patient in his own right with a 15% BB% against righties.
The Cubs as a unit walk 11.5% of the time in matchups with pitchers on that side. Conforto doesn't always make the lineup, but I think we'll see him get a start here. We have some walk equity for this Cubbies lineup in this particular spot.
St. Louis Cardinals Betting Preview: Two Batters Stand Out
I think Leahy is in for a tough one.
The Cubs are going to play this series hard. MLB players are typically playing hard, but it's a particularly important late-May series for them as they've fallen from first to fourth in the division in a hurry.
I think we'll see a pretty locked-in game at the plate against Leahy.
Let's talk about those Cardinals home run hitters. We're looking for fly ball hitters against Imanaga. Here's what we've got:
- JJ Wetherholt 38% FB%
- Jordan Walker 30%
Those are the two we want to attack if you're looking for big money payouts. And particularly, it's Jordan Walkerwho hits right-handed and has some of the best raw talent in the entire league.
Walker has a screaming .406 xwOBA and 18.2% Brl% against lefties this year. He's been locked in, and this is a great matchup for the big man.
This game is in St. Louis, so we don't have to worry about the weird wind stuff that can creep up on us. Walker has a .400 xwOBA at home this year, better than his .363 mark on the road. We like him for a big fly tonight.
What Imanaga doesn't usually do is walk hitters, and the Cardinals aren't a patient bunch. Their swing rate is a point above the league average, and their walk rate is in the bottom half of the field this year — 10th-lowest in the league, to be exact.
Cubs vs Cardinals Pick, Betting Analysis
WHO'S HOT?
Here are your expected wOBA above-expectation leaders from the last month on these two teams. If you want to learn more about this stat, which I created myself, click here.
- Michael Busch +.079
- Alec Burleson +.060
- Pete Crow-Armstrong +.054
- Jordan Walker +.023
It's validation on Busch and Walker. Everything looks just right for those two mashers.
I've got a variety of leans here, and you can take and do with them what you will.
- Jordan Walker HR
- Michael Busch Walk
- Michael Busch Over 1.5 HRR day
- Kyle Leahy short outing
- Shota Imanaga under on the walks
If one of these pitchers is going to outright dominate, it will be Imanaga. When he avoids the home run (which does have plenty of randomness in it, so it can happen on any given night), he's one of the best in the game with his consistently strong K-BB% ability.
For that reason, I'd take the Cubs F5 moneyline if I had to pick a side.
Pick: Jordan Walker Home Run | Michael Busch Over 1.5 HRR
