Thursday Night Football and Week 1 of the NFL season are officially stealing the spotlight tonight, but don't let the gridiron completely distract you from the diamond.
It’s a lighter, split-slate card today with just five MLB games on the board, but a smaller slate only means we can zero in on the sharpest matchups.
Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Thursday, September 10.
MLB Player Props Today
- Jacob deGrom 17+ Outs Recorded 50c (Kalshi, Play to 57c)
- Ben Rice 2+ Total Bases 48c (Kalshi, Play to 56c)
Rangers vs Mariners Player Prop
Though deGrom's 5.06 ERA since the All-Star break is far from impressive, his underlying results have been quite strong, and the inflated ERA is mainly due to one abysmal showing versus the White Sox in which he was charged with eight earned runs. Throughout his last nine starts deGrom has pitched to an xFIP of 3.30, and holds an elite Pitching+ rating of 118.
He's been fairly efficient throughout his last two outings, as he's worked through 13 combined innings throwing 85 and 90 pitches. DeGrom should feel comfortable pitching aggressively in a cushy matchup at T-Mobile Park versus a mediocre Mariners lineup, and after Cody Bradford threw just four innings in Wednesday's matchup, the Rangers likely won't be overly eager to get their future Hall of Famer out of the game if things are going smoothly.
The Mariners have hit to a wRC+ of 100 versus right-handed pitching since June 1st, and rank 21st in expected weighted on-base average in that span.
Based on deGrom's recent form he likely will not allow too much traffic on the basepaths, and there looks to be value in backing him to record at least 17 outs.
Pick: Jacob deGrom 17+ Outs Recorded 50c (Kalshi, Play to 57c)
Rockies vs Yankees Player Prop
Rice enters this matchup in the midst of an 0-for-9 slump, but given the price that seems livable as the Yankees eye a soft matchup versus Ryan Feltner and a shaky bullpen.
Throughout his last ten starts, Feltner has pitched to an xERA of 5.17 with an xFIP of 5.11. He's allowed batters to hit .311 in that span and a slugging percentage of .642. He hasn't just been getting roughed up at Coors Field either, as he holds an ERA of 5.36 on the road this season and a slug-rate of .505.
The Yankees are massive favorites in this matchup with Max Fried set to start, and hold a notably high team total of 5.5. With that in mind, this seems like a solid spot to target Rice to snap his slump and have a productive outing, given the price of 48c to record two bases.
Throughout his last 257 PA's Rice holds a wRC+ of 132 and has slugged .475. He holds an xwOBA of .375 in that span, and ranks in the 94th percentile in xwOBA this season. Rice also owns considerably better splits versus right-handed pitching (.551 slug, .915 OPS).
While Rice's high-whiff and K-rates are concerns, Feltner should not be an overly likely candidate to expose those issues.
Pick: Ben Rice 2+ Total Bases 48c (Play to 56c)
