The Philadelphia Phillies host the Houston Astros on September 10, 2026. First pitch from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on SCHN.
The Phillies are favored by -196 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Astros are +161 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Astros vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Astros vs Phillies Prediction
- Astros vs Phillies Pick: Under 8.5 | Bet through 8
My Astros vs Phillies best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Astros vs Phillies Odds
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -132 | 8.5 -112o / -107u | +161 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -112o / -107u | -196 |
- Astros vs Phillies moneyline: Astros +161, Phillies -196
- Astros vs Phillies over/under: 8.5 (-112o / -107u)
- Astros vs Phillies spread: Phillies -1.5 (+110), Astros +1.5 (-132)
Astros vs Phillies Probable Pitchers
| Cristian Javier (RHP, HOU) | Stat | Zack Wheeler (RHP, PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 2-5 | W-L | 12-5 |
| 0.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.9 |
| 5.98/4.98 | ERA / xERA | 3.23/3.03 |
| 4.88/4.83 | FIP / xFIP | 3.64/3.13 |
| 12.6% | K-BB% | 21.9% |
| 25.0% | GB% | 42.4% |
| .329 | BABIP | .265 |
| 100 | Stuff+ | 105 |
| 103 | Location+ | 105 |
Astros vs Phillies MLB Betting Preview
Temperatures in the mid-80s with a 10 mph wind out towards right-center is the early forecast for Philly. Similar conditions have historically bumped run scoring 2-4% in a park that already plays 4% above average.
However, scheduled umpire Jeremie Rehak brings that back 2.1%, nearly negating the current forecast, which could change.
Cristian Javier completed five innings for the first time in four outings last time out, allowing a single run, while striking out eight Diamondbacks.
He has just one quality start on the season because he’s finished six innings just once.
Javier’s K-BB has been on the rise (25.7% last four starts, 12.6% on the season), but his contact profile has been feast or famine.
Of the 14 barrels he’s allowed so far (9.4%), 11 have come in just five outings, while he’s allowed only three across all his other starts. He’s allowed multiple barrels three times in his last six and none in the other three.
All of that said, his 5.98 ERA is a bit elevated by a .329 BABIP, 69.3 LOB% and having nine of his 14 barrels leave the park. Estimators are closer to five with weighted estimators closer to four and a half, considering much improvement to his peripherals over the last month.
Ironically, RHBs have smoked Javier for a .382 wOBA and .380 xwOBA, while the Phillies are likely to stack the lineup mostly with LHBs and probably one more than usual with Realmuto starting on Wednesday night. LHBs have only two of those nine home runs Javier has surrendered in a similar number of plate appearances (only 17 PA difference).
RHBs also own a .333 wOBA against Javier, but just a .294 xwOBA, which seems to be where most of the discrepancy between his results and indicators lies.
The projected Phillies’ lineup averages a 103 wRC+ at home, but just 93 against RHP. The good news is that they’ve added to the big three (Schwarber 126 wRC+, Harper 172 wRC+ and Marsh 105 wRC+) with Arraez (114 wRC+), but still, no other projected Phillie exceeds a 95 wRC+ against RHP this year.
These projected nine also only average a 96 wRC+ over the last month.
The Houston defense projects for 0 FRV, perfectly average.
More irony, these bullpens virtually tie for 7th best estimators over the last 30 days, averaging a FIP, xFIP and SIERA within 0.01 runs of each other at three and two-thirds runs per nine.
BARTOLO ranks both bullpens top 10 as well, but gives the home team a one-fifth or a run edge.
Zack Wheeler has recovered from a concerning stretch where he allowed 19 runs (18 earned) in just 19.1 innings with a 7.3 K-BB% to strike out 15 of his last 48 batters, while walking five and allowing just two runs over his last 12 innings, while elevating his velocity nearly half a mph too.
Yes, he still has a 13.9 BB% over his last six starts though.
The biggest thing to mention against the Astros is that Wheeler has held RHBs to a .245 wOBA and .228 xwOBA this year.
Important with the Astros only expected to start three LHBs, although they could also counter with LaMonte Wade Jr., who isn’t scaring anybody.
I’m also projecting Yainer Diaz (110 wRC+ vs RHP, 142 wRC+ last 30 days) to sit after starting Wednesday night, bringing the projected Houston lineup to an average 103 wRC+ on the road, 108 at home, but just 78 over the last month.
Yordan Alvarez (124 wRC+) and Isaac Paredes (151 wRC+) are the only projected Astros above a 94 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
A projected defense at -12 FRV is actually not that bad for the Phillies and we’ve already discussed the bullpen, though we won’t know if anyone is unavailable until after this is published.
With Javier being a late confirmation, we’re still missing a few markets in this game, but I have found one I like.
While there are concerns for both pitchers in Javier’s volatility and Wheeler’s sudden walk issues, both should be in favorable matchups, facing the majority of batters from a side of the plate they’ve done better against.
Add in a pair of quality defenses and I’m a bit below the market total of 8.5 on this game.
Pick: Under 8.5 | Bet through 8
