The Colorado Rockies host the Cleveland Guardians on August 22, 2026. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 8:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Rockies prediction below.
Guardians vs Rockies Prediction
- Guardians vs Rockies Pick: Rockies (43c, Kalshi)
Guardians vs Rockies Kalshi MLB Odds
Guardians vs Rockies Probable Pitchers
| Tanner Bibee (RHP, CLE) | Stat | Gabriel Hughes (RHP, COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-13 | W-L | 0-4 |
| 1.0 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.01 / 4.32 | ERA / xERA | 6.69 / 3.43 |
| 4.65 / 4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.56 / 4.21 |
| 12.1% | K-BB% | 12.2% |
| 37.8% | GB% | 39.3% |
| .248 | BABIP | .319 |
| 103 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 101 | Location+ | 105 |
Guardians vs Rockies MLB Preview
Pitcher A in this game has a 12.1 K-BB%, 37.8 GB%, 4.41 SIERA, 4.37 xFIP, 4.57 dERA, and 4.32 xERA, while allowing 8.3% Barrels/BBE with a 39.3 HardHit%.
Over the last month, he has a 4.46 SIERA, 4.72 xFIP, and has allowed a .286 xwOBA.
Pitcher B has a 12.2 K-BB%, 39.3 GB%, 4.31 SIERA, 4.22 xFIP, 4.44 dERA, and 3.42 xERA, while allowing 4.3% Barrels/BBE with a 28.4 HardHit%.
Over the last month, he has a 4.58 SIERA, 4.63 xFIP, and has allowed a .303 xwOBA.
Okay, yes, I listed them in Road/Home order because that’s what I always do, and Gabriel Hughes has just seven starts, which devalues his contact profile a bit. Still, it looks like he’s been the slightly better pitcher.
Why does he have a 6.69 ERA? How about a 52.2 LOB%?
Some of the ERA gap between the two pitchers is explained by a 14 FRV gap in projected defenses via projected lineups, favoring Cleveland, but that's only a small part of the 2.68-run difference between them.
That probably gets the two pitchers, or run prevention units as a whole, to equal.
The projected Colorado lineup edges out the projected Cleveland one by 6 points of wRC+ (averages of 108 and 102) against RHP, another 6 points Home and Road (98 to 92) and then 9 points by last 30-day wRC+ (102 to 93).
The Rockies also project for 2 more BRR.
Considering they’re also playing this game at Coors, we haven’t really figured out why the Rockies are +120 dogs here, have we? Could the bullpens be that far apart?
Via BARTOLO, they are 17 teams apart, with Cleveland ranking 13th (3.84 wFIP) and Colorado last (4.54 wFIP). That’s a pretty wide gap, but when considering 30-day estimators, the Cleveland bullpen is only one-third of a run better.
No matter how you add it up, the Rockies' chances to win are much higher than the 43% odds they've been given at Kalshi.
Pick: Rockies (43c, Kalshi)
