The Baltimore Orioles host the Tampa Bay Rays on August 22, 2026. First pitch from Oriole Park at Camden Yards is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Rays are favored by -122 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Orioles are +114 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Rays vs Orioles prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Rays vs Orioles Prediction
- Rays vs Orioles Pick: Over 8 (-106, 1.08u | Bet to 8.5)
My Rays vs Orioles best bet is 8+ total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Rays vs Orioles Odds
| Rays Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +130 | 8 -106o / -114u | -122 |
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -156 | 8 -106o / -114u | +114 |
- Rays vs Orioles moneyline: Rays -122, Orioles +114
- Rays vs Orioles over/under: 8 (-106o / -114u)
- Rays vs Orioles spread: Rays -1.5 (+130), Orioles +1.5 (-156)
Rays vs Orioles Probable Pitchers
| Shane McClanahan | Stat | Brandon Young |
|---|---|---|
| 9-6 | W-L | 9-3 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.5 |
| 3.25 / 4.17 | ERA / xERA | 3.52 / 4.40 |
| 3.41 / 4.02 | FIP / xFIP | 4.23 / 4.44 |
| 13.9 | K-BB% | 10.7 |
| 44.1 | GB% | 43.1 |
| .255 | BABIP | .290 |
| 107 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 94 | Location+ | 105 |
Rays vs Orioles MLB Betting Preview
Rays vs Orioles Pick, Betting Analysis
I feel like I must be missing something here. Camden enhances run scoring by 4%. The early forecast suggests a negative weather impact of up to 2%, depending on your preferred source. I’m using the worst number I can find to emphasize the point.
Projected umpire Nic Lentz gives that right back at +2.5%. Overall, this is going to be a positive run environment on Saturday. There may be some rain, but I’m not willing to sit on this.
The Rays have to be thrilled that Shane MccLanahan has returned with a 3.25 ERA this season. His indicators suggest something more around four with a .255 BABIP and just 32% of his barrels turning into home runs.
The Orioles projected lineup averages a 113 wRC+ against LHP. CES’s 201 is a bit absurd, but Coby Mayo is sitting at 197 too. This lineup also averages a 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
Despite allowing just a .268 BABIP, the projected Tampa Bay defense has accumulated -9 FRV.
BARTOLO ranks the Tampa Bay bullpen 12th (3.87 wFIP), which is also exactly where their last 30-day estimators lie.
Brandon Young has a 3.52 ERA, but without an estimator below four. In fact, his 4.44 ERA over the last month is much more in line with his season indicators.
The Tampa Bay projected lineup averages a 117 wRC+ against RHP and is above 100 over the last month and on the road too.
The Baltimore projected defense is at -11 FRV.
BARTOLO ranks the Orioles 11th (3.86 wFIP) out of the bullpen with their estimators over the last month a bit worse (17th), averaging just above four.
Where is the superior run prevention that’s supposed to keep this game below eight runs? I can’t find it. Don't buy into the ERAs.
Pick: Over 8 (-106, 1.08u | Bet to 8.5)
