Cubs vs. Giants MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Two Streaks Set to End in San Francisco? (Thursday, July 28)
Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Wood (Giants)
- The Cubs will face off against the Giants in San Francisco on Thursday evening.
- Chicago currently owns a six-game winning streak while San Francisco has lost its past seven.
- Kenny Ducey explains why he believes both streaks will end.
Cubs vs. Giants Odds
|Over/Under||8 (-110 / -110)|
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
As the Cubs get ready to sell at the trade deadline, they’ve suddenly caught fire. Chicago will carry a six-game winning streak into a weekend series with the coldest team in baseball, the San Francisco Giants.
With a pair of promising lefties toeing the slab, is there any value to be found here?
Let’s take a look at how this one breaks down.
Pitching Leading to Cubs’ Winning Streak
Who saw this coming? Over the last two weeks, the Cubs have been one of the better teams in the league offensively. They rank 12th in wRC+, putting the ball in play more often with an improved 21.6% strikeout rate.
There hasn’t been massive strides made in the power department, and walks have actually been down, but for a team batting .246 this season, hitting .264 seems like a real accomplishment.
Pitching has been what’s driven this hot streak. Chicago has the best staff ERA in baseball at a blistering 2.01 over the last 14 days. Even the bullpen is sporting a 1.26 ERA — you read that right.
Justin Steele will look to keep that going here for the north-siders. He owns a 2.38 ERA over his last four starts, striking out 20 batters in 22 2/3 innings and surrendering just one home run.
Walks have continued to be an issue for him this season, but he’s pitched to contact rather well and carries a 3.73 ERA into this one.
Giants Need to Start Winning — Now!
Despite a 48-50 record and a seven-game losing streak, the Giants insist that they will not be selling at the deadline. If that’s truly the case, they’d better start winning some games — and a four-game set at home against a team that is far less talented would be a good place to start.
San Francisco has found 10 dingers in the last two weeks, and while it hasn’t done the best job in the power department, it’s still walking at an 8.7% clip and owns a somewhat decent .134 ISO.
The issue has been strikeouts. The Giants have fanned in 23.4% of at-bats, and as a result, they’ve hit just .203.
Alex Wood hasn’t been as good as he really should be. His expected ERA is a very palatable 3.68, and his strikeout rate is definitively above average at 24.3%.
Yet good results have been hard to come by this season for Wood — until lately. He’s allowed just three earned over his last four starts, spanning 20 2/3 innings.
Given the amount of starts we can look back on from Wood over the years, it’s easy to say he’s an above-average pitcher and these results have been coming for a while.
The Cubs rank 16th in wRC+ against lefties and have gotten to this point by getting the bat on the ball. This is going to be a tough one considering Wood’s ability to miss bats and pitch to contact.
The Giants, meanwhile, are seventh against lefties, with a solid .189 ISO in that split. This is the matchup they have been waiting for, and I expect them to take advantage and finally earn a win.
Steele isn’t a high-strikeout arm and should serve up plenty of contact. Both streaks come to an end here.
Pick: Giants ML (-140)