MLB Odds, Picks for Cubs vs. Mets: Bet This Jacob deGrom Prop
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom #48 of the New York Mets.
- The Chicago Cubs and New York Mets continue their series Tuesday at Citi Field with the Mets listed as heavy favorites.
- The Mets have their ace, Jacob deGrom, on the mound and Nick Martin sees value in a player prop.
- He breaks down the game and his betting pick below.
Cubs vs. Mets Odds
|Over/Under||6.5 (-120 / +100)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The New York Mets‘ National League East lead remained at 1.5 games Monday as the Atlanta Braves fell for a third consecutive time, helping console Mets fans after a shocking loss to the Cubs as -300 favorites earlier in the night.
The Mets enter as gigantic favorites yet again Tuesday, in a pitching matchup pitting Jacob deGrom against Adrian Sampson.
With just 20 games left on the schedule, every Mets win will go a long way to closing out the NL East crown, will New York’s ace lead it to an important win Tuesday?
Cubs Playing Scrappy of Late
Chicago’s five-earned-run performance off of Chris Bassitt Monday certainly came as somewhat of a surprise, considering the Cubs have still batted to poor numbers in most relevant categories of late.
It does feel to me there is a little positivity amongst David Ross’ Cubs side of late, and that the group seems to have somewhat of scrappy attitude heading into the final stretch of the season, but that has yet to be reflected with any kind of consistent offensive success.
The Cubs have hit to a wRC+ of just 89 over the last 30 days with a .296 wOBA, and has struck out at a fifth-highest mark league wide during that span being 23.8%, with a BB/K rate of just 0.30, and we know full well deGrom will look to put heavy pressure on the Cubs batters in this one.
Mets Ace Is Dominant As Ever
deGrom has picked up right where he left off since returning on Aug. 2, and has continued to prove game after game why he is the best pitcher in baseball.
deGrom has struck batters out at a ridiculous 41.4% clip throughout 43.1 innings to start this season, and his combination of fastball velocity and command continues to be unrivaled by any other starter.
deGrom has steadily pitched deeper into ball games as his season has ran along, now completing six or more innings in each of his last five outings, and New York would love a similar outing here as it looks to finish locking down the division title.
He has regularly gotten ahead of batters, who hold a 42% miss-rate on the first pitch of at-bats since 2020, which as you might expect is the best mark in the MLB during that span.
deGrom holds a nearly identical two-strike miss rate of 43% since 2020 as well, and his aggressive mentality while ahead in the count continues to prove a very difficult task for batters this season.
Couple that with deGrom’s anemic walk-rate of just 2.6%, and even as New York try their best to preserve his arm for the postseason, we should continue to see him hanging around later into ball games until the division race is over.
New York are priced as you might expect with deGrom on the mound, as at -170 to even cover the run-line, the books are really reflecting just how dominant deGrom has been with these prices.
A line which did stand out to me for offering a better number than I would have expected was Jacob deGrom over 19.5 pitching outs, which he has cruised past in each of the last two starts.
Obviously things happen that make this less of a sitter as it seems, such as a significant Mets lead, or the fact that Chicago will likely be out there trying to extend at bats from the very get-go, but I still feel this is in with a better than 50% shot to be sure.
deGrom has been spectacular at putting batters away yet again this season, and will attack the bottom of the Cubs order aggressively all night long looking to keep the pitch count in check.
With the Mets right in the thick of an important NL East division battle deGrom will likely be allowed to throw seven innings barring either a surprisingly poor performance, or a lead of four or more by the sixth, which could be the greater concern for this prop.
Adrian Sampson has pitched respectably enough that this is far from a gimme to be a blowout, and I think that fact is also important for this bet.
At +105 I certainly feel we have the odds to see how it works out however, and backing a long deGrom outing is my favorite play from this one.
Pick: Jacob deGrom Over 19.5 Pitching Outs (+105) — Play to -110