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Cubs vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Total in Philadelphia (Sunday, July 24)

Cubs vs. Phillies MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Target the Total in Philadelphia (Sunday, July 24) article feature image

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Smyly #11 of the Chicago Cubs.

  • A pair of National League squads wrap up a weekend series as the Phillies host the Cubs in a Sunday matinee.
  • Drew Smyly takes the ball for Chicago while Bailey Falter gets the nod for Philadelphia.
  • Tony Sartori breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Cubs vs. Phillies Odds

Cubs Odds+115
Phillies Odds-140
Over/Under10 (-115/-105)
Time12:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the third and final game of this series as the NL East‘s Philadelphia Phillies host the NL Central‘s Chicago Cubs. The first outing of this series went well over the total while the second outing resulted in a push.

Will the final game of this series see another high-scoring affair, or can the pitching step up this time around?

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Chicago Cubs: Smyly Fares Well Against Phillies

Over their past 12 games, the Chicago Cubs are 5-3-4 to the Under (63%). I expect this trend to continue as lefty Drew Smyly is slated to take the mound for Chicago.

Through 11 starts this season, Smyly is 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. While those numbers are certainly “take it or leave it,” Smyly has had some great success against the Phillies recently.

Over his past two starts against Philadelphia, Smyly boasts a 2.16 ERA while allowing eight hits over 8 2/3 innings. There have been 10 or fewer runs scored in nine of Smyly’s past 10 starts.

Additionally, Smyly may not get much run support in this game as the Cubs are slated to go against left-hander Bailey Falter. Since June 1, the Cubs rank just 23rd in the league in BA, 18th in SLG, 19th in OPS and 20th in wOBA when facing left-handed pitchers.

While the Cubs have only faced Falter as a relief pitcher, they have failed to record a hit in each of their past two outings against Falter.

Philadelphia Phillies: Bullpen Pitching Well of Late

Like Chicago, the Philadelphia Phillies have also seen many low-scoring games recently as the Under has hit in nine of their past 12 contests. As I mentioned above, lefty Bailey Falter is slated to take the mound for the Phillies.

Through nine appearances this season, Falter is 0-2 with a 4.82 ERA and a 1.46 WHIP. While those numbers are not overly impressive, Falter has fared better over his past two appearances against the Cubs.

Falter just recently joined the starting rotation and rarely goes any further than four innings. This means Philadelphia’s bullpen will be relied upon heavily in this outing, which is a good thing for those taking the Under.

Since June 1st, the Phillies’ relief pitching ranks ninth in the league in ERA, fourth in BA, sixth in SLG and seventh in wOBA. However, this pitching staff may not get much run support as the Phillies are slated to go against lefty Drew Smyly without their best hitter, Bryce Harper.

When facing left-handed pitchers, the Phillies rank just 18th in the league in BA since the beginning of June. Through 71 career plate appearances against Smyly, this current Phillies roster possesses a mere .245 xBA, .439 xSLG and a .327 xwOBA.

Cubs-Phillies Pick

The Under is 14-6-4 (70%) in the past 24 combined games for these two teams. With this strong trend in effect, I expect another low-scoring affair between two lackluster offenses.

While Philadelphia’s offense is definitely not as bad as Chicago’s, the loss of Harper has been a big factor in these low-scoring games. I believe we are getting a generous total due to the poor surface-level numbers of each of these starting pitchers.

That being said, Smyly has had success against the Phillies and Philadelphia will be going with their strong bullpen for the majority of the game.

Pick: Cubs/Phillies u10 (-110) | Play up to (-125)

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