Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Tuesday, September 8.
MLB Player Props Today
- Drew Anderson Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (50%, Kalshi)
- Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 Strikeouts (49%, Kalshi)
- Jacob Misiorowski Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (45%, Kalshi)
Twins vs Tigers Player Prop
Drew Anderson has quietly become one of the more reliable arms in Detroit's rotation since the Tigers plugged him in as a starter after the trade deadline, and he brings a strong track record into this one. He's pitched to a 3.73 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP across eight starts, with a 2.66 ERA over his August workload.
The contact profile is the key here. Anderson lives off a well above-average chase rate and a heavy groundball approach, which keeps him efficient but also means balls are consistently finding the infield grass rather than getting missed entirely.
He's not a swing-and-miss arm working deep counts with a lot of strikeouts piling up; he's a pitch-to-contact righty who leans on soft contact and quick innings, and that style allows a base level of hits to accumulate even in strong starts.
His 1.30 WHIP works out to roughly 6-7 baserunners across a typical 5-6 inning outing, and with limited strikeout stuff to close out at-bats cleanly, hits, not walks, are doing most of that damage.
Minnesota gets a look at him for the fourth time this season, and while Anderson has dominated the Twins in limited action, allowing just two earned runs over 9.1 innings in his first three meetings, that sample came in relief and spot outings, not a full rotation workload.
Now he's throwing more innings per start as Detroit's every-fifth-day guy, which simply means more time on the mound and more opportunities for balls to land. Comerica Park grades out as a neutral park factor, so there's no ballpark-driven suppression working in his favor either.
The volume of innings and contact rate here line up well for the over, even against a Twins lineup that's been streaky in September.
Pick: Drew Anderson Over 4.5 Hits Allowed (50%, Kalshi)
Pirates vs White Sox Player Prop
Bubba Chandler has been Pittsburgh's best starter since the All-Star break, and the strikeout stuff has been a major part of that turnaround.
Over his second-half run, he posted a stretch with an ERA in the low 2.00s and struck out hitters at a much higher clip than his season-long number suggests, riding a power fastball-slider combo that misses bats when he's locating well.
With 121 strikeouts already on the season and that surge largely driven by missed bats, he has the swing-and-miss equipment to clear this number on most nights, and the volume of innings he's typically going keeps the opportunities coming.
His last time out against San Francisco was a mixed bag results-wise. He allowed three earned runs over five innings, with the damage bunched into one bad frame, but that kind of outing doesn't usually come with a shortage of strikeouts.
Velocity-driven starters like Chandler tend to keep missing bats even in outings where the results go sideways. He gets a White Sox lineup on the road that has actually punched out at a solid clip against opposing starters in its recent games, checking in right around this line on a rolling basis.
Chandler's walk rate has been a real issue this year, tied for one of the highest figures among MLB starters, but the flip side of a pitcher who's around the zone less is one who's also generating a lot of two-strike counts and chases.
That keeps the strikeout floor respectable even on his shakier nights and gives this a solid lean toward the over.
Pick: Bubba Chandler Over 4.5 Strikeouts (49%, Kalshi)
Cubs vs Brewers Player Prop
This is a case where the name attached to the prop looks scary for an over. Misiorowski is running an absurd 0.75 WHIP and a sub-2.00 ERA, the best pitching season in baseball this year by several measures, but the number itself is set low enough that even his usual level of dominance clears it more often than not.
Across his 25 starts of three-or-fewer earned runs to open the season, he's still allowed hits at a rate that lands right around this line rather than well under it. His home splits this season show an average of a little over three hits allowed per start at American Family Field, and his floor in recent outings has been right in that range.
That last data point matters most here: Misiorowski just faced this exact Chicago lineup less than a week ago at Wrigley and got hit harder than his season line suggests, allowing five hits and five runs over four innings, with Alex Bregman doing most of the damage.
The Cubs have been one of the more disciplined, contact-oriented lineups in the league all year, exactly the profile that tends to grind out at-bats and find enough contact to push a low hits-allowed number over, even against a starter with this level of stuff.
Having the over on a pitcher with a 0.75 WHIP feels counterintuitive, and if Misiorowski is at his absolute best, he can absolutely finish under this number.
However, a 3.5 line is a low bar; his own home and recent-start averages sit right around or above it, and he gave up five hits to this specific Cubs lineup in his last look at them. That head-to-head familiarity, plus the tight number, creates plenty of value on the over.
Pick: Jacob Misiorowski Over 3.5 Hits Allowed (45%, Kalshi)
