Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Odds, Pick, Prediction: Target Underdog in Game 2 of Doubleheader (April 19)
Dustin Satloff/Getty Images. Pictured: Ketel Marte
- Game 2 of the Diamondbacks-Nationals doubleheader features a couple of young starters on the mound.
- Tyler Gilbert takes the bump for Arizona against Washington's Joan Adon.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals Game 2 Odds
|Over/Under||8.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
With Game 1 behind us, the nightcap of this doubleheader will feature two young arms who have plenty of promise but have not gotten off to the best of starts.
Tyler Gilbert will be making his first MLB appearance in the 2022 season after a big cup of coffee in 2021. Overall, the soft-tossing left-hander was effective in his big league stint, but Gilbert began this new campaign in Triple-A and will enter this start after two rocky outings in Reno.
Opposing Gilbert will be Joan Adon. He enters this start after a shellacking from the Pittsburg Pirates. That was after the Mets tagged him for four runs in four innings in his first start of the season.
Now, he’ll get another struggling offense in Arizona, but are the Snakes set to hit Adon again, or can he get his season back on track?
Arizona Should Continue Hitting Adon Hard
Allowing 10 runs in nine innings is undoubtedly not how anyone wants to start their season. However, it is raining for Adon, and the Diamondbacks could make it poor.
Arizona has had more than its fair share of struggles to begin the season; however, the Diamondbacks have more quality hitters than Adon faced in his last start. So while the runs may wind up in the box score, it is the consistent hard contact that’s produced those runs that could carry over.
Adon is in the bottom six percent of the league in expected batting average, slugging, and weighted on-base percentage. In addition, his 10.00 ERA is actually expected to be a tick higher. All of these numbers are due to Adon’s inability to miss bats and command the ball within the zone. He is also in the bottom-10 percent in the league in barrel percentage and whiff percentage.
Adon has struggled mightily with left-handed hitters in his young career, which is troubling against the D’backs. He’ll be up against the likes of Ketel Marte, David Peralta, and Seth Beer, who has been the team’s hottest hitter. If Adon’s command issues continue, Arizona could send him to the showers early.
Gilbert Can Contain Nats’ Bats
While this may only be Gilbert’s seventh career start, he showed that he is more than capable of getting the job done last season. Over six starts and three relief appearances last season, Gilbert pitched to a 3.15 ERA and produced a lot of soft contact with an expected batting average of .228 and an average exit velocity of 88.3 mph.
Since Gilbert only tops out around 90 mph, movement is a crucially important part of his repertoire. His primary pitch is a cutter that is very effective against right-handers as it gives him the ability to work both sides of the plate. In addition, his out pitches, a curveball, and split-finger, were nearly untouchable last season. Opponents hit just .111 against his curveball and .083 against his splitter.
Gilbert spent seven years in the minor honing his craft, and if he can prove to be effective in this outing, he may carve out a role for himself with the big club. His stuff should hold a scuffling Nats lineup in check.
While we are working with relatively small sample sizes with the starting pitchers in this matchup, the underlying numbers are telling of how effective they each are.
Arizona’s lineup is much deeper and has the talent to make Adon pay if he makes a mistake. Adon’s splits are very concerning, especially against a lineup filled with lefties. I expect the Diamondbacks to put him in deep water early and tack on later against a young Nationals bullpen.
Back the Diamondbacks as underdogs here.
Pick: Arizona ML +105 (Play to +100)