The Houston Astros host the Los Angeles Dodgers on May 6, 2026. First pitch from Daikin Park is scheduled for 2:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on SportsNet LA.
The Dodgers are favored by -220 on the moneyline and by -2.5 on the run line. The Astros are +180 on the moneyline and +2.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Dodgers vs Astros prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Dodgers vs Astros Prediction
- Dodgers vs Astros Pick: Astros Team Total Under 3.5 (-125)
My Dodgers vs Astros best bet is on Houston to score three or fewer runs this afternoon. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Dodgers vs Astros Odds
| Dodgers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 +110 | 9 100o / -120u | -220 |
| Astros Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -135 | 9 100o / -120u | +180 |
- Dodgers vs Astros moneyline: Dodgers -220, Astros +180
- Dodgers vs Astros over/under: 9 (+100o / -120u)
- Dodgers vs Astros spread: Dodgers -2.5 (+110), Astros +2.5 (-135)
Dodgers vs Astros Probable Pitchers
| RHP Tyler Glasnow (LAD) | Stat | RHP Lance McCullers Jr. (HOU) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-0 | W-L | 2-2 |
| 1.1 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.3 |
| 2.56 / 2.41 | ERA / xERA | 6.32 / 4.37 |
| 3.07 / 2.94 | FIP / xFIP | 4.52 / 4.13 |
| 23.6 | K-BB% | 12.0 |
| 45.2 | GB% | 43.2 |
| .188 | BABIP | .299 |
| 104 | Stuff+ | 97 |
| 96 | Location+ | 97 |
Dodgers vs Astros MLB Betting Preview
There’s a strong case to be made for the full-game under in Wednesday’s matchup between the Dodgers and Astros, and the market clearly agrees. Sharp money has been hitting the under since early Wednesday morning, which makes sense considering who’s on the mound for the Dodgers.
But honestly, instead of relying on both teams to stay quiet for nine innings, I’d much rather fade Houston and back the Astros Team Total Under.
This spot sets up perfectly for Tyler Glasnow.
Glasnow has been one of the most dominant starters in baseball to begin the 2026 season, entering tonight with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.83 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts already on the year.
However, the Baseball Savant profile might be even more impressive than the traditional numbers. Opposing hitters own just a .230 wOBA against him with a .249 expected wOBA, while his barrel rate allowed sits at only 7.1%.
The stuff is still overwhelming. His fastball continues to sit in the upper 90s, and his slider has generated elite swing and miss numbers again this season. Hitters are consistently chasing out of the zone against him, especially right-handed bats that struggle with elevated velocity and late-breaking movement.
Action PRO projects Glasnow for 7.8 strikeouts today.
To put the cherry on top, the Astros are batting under .200 against Glasnow in their career.
Against righties in 2026, the Astros are hitting .268 with a respectable OPS overall, but the underlying profile tells a different story. Houston has already struck out 162 times against right-handed pitching this year and continues relying heavily on isolated power instead of sustained offensive pressure.
That approach becomes dangerous against someone like Glasnow because teams rarely string together multiple quality at-bats against him once he gets ahead in counts. He can occasionally lose control at times, but his ability to limit hard contact is going to cause the Astros a ton of issues all afternoon.
Houston’s projected lineup leans right-handed, and Glasnow has historically dominated aggressive right-handed hitters with his fastball-slider combination. The Astros tend to expand the zone against premium velocity, which plays directly into Glasnow’s strengths.
It also doesn’t help that Carlos Correa is absent from the lineup due to injury. That removes one of Houston’s best fastball hitters and shortens the lineup considerably against an elite strikeout pitcher.
Dodgers vs Astros Pick, Betting Analysis
The biggest reason I am fading Houston instead of betting the full game total comes down to Lance McCullers Jr.
McCullers still flashes quality stuff, but he’s also one of the more volatile starters in baseball. Even during good stretches, the blow-up innings are always lurking because his command can disappear quickly. His underlying metrics are also mediocre at best, and after an off-night offensively from the Dodgers, I expect them to come out with strong at-bats.
That volatility makes me a little uncomfortable because the Dodgers are fully capable of hanging a crooked number if McCullers loses the zone for even one inning. If the Dodgers jump ahead early, Houston will likely start pressing offensively against Glasnow, which usually leads to even more strikeouts and chase swings trying to erase deficits quickly.
Even without Edwin Diaz, the Dodgers pen is still strong in the back end, so I wouldn’t expect much resistance from the Astros at that point in the game either.
Houston’s approach against premium velocity remains shaky, Correa is now out, and they could easily find themselves playing from behind all afternoon.
I’m not overthinking this one. I’d be surprised to see the Astros bats show up on Wednesday afternoon.
Pick: Astros Team Total Under 3.5 (-125, BetMGM)
