The Cincinnati Reds host the St. Louis Cardinals on August 20, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 12:40 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CARD.
The Cardinals are favored by -114 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Reds are +106 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 9 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Cardinals vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Cardinals vs Reds Prediction
- Cardinals vs Reds Pick: Reds ML (play to -135)
My Cardinals vs Reds best bet is on Cincinnati to win oturight. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Cardinals vs Reds Odds
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +128 | 9 -115o / -105u | -114 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -154 | 9 -115o / -105u | +106 |
- Cardinals vs Reds moneyline: Cardinals -114, Reds +106
- Cardinals vs Reds over/under: 9 (-115o / -105u)
- Cardinals vs Reds spread: Cardinals -1.5 (+128), Reds +1.5 (-154)
Cardinals vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| Michael McGreevy (RHP, STL) | Stat | Brady Singer (RHP, CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-9 | W-L | 5-11 |
| 1.4 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.48/5.47 | ERA / xERA | 4.66/5.03 |
| 4.25/4.20 | FIP / xFIP | 5.13/4.37 |
| 10.6% | K-BB% | 11.1% |
| 43.4% | GB% | 41.6% |
| .276 | BABIP | .304 |
| 81 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 111 | Location+ | 97 |
Cardinals vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Cardinals vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
The Cardinals have enjoyed some real success pitching to this Reds lineup in this series, and they'll hope Michael McGreevy can put the finishing touches on this pitching masterpiece.
McGreevy is a pitcher who has benefited from good fortune this year, as his 3.48 ERA masks his poor 5.47 xERA and 4.25 FIP. Underlying numbers that isolate what a pitcher can control (like FIP) will never be fond of a 6.20 K/9 and 1.23 HR/9. Those are usually telltale signs that a pitcher has been pretty lucky.
He gets hit hard, doesn't strike out hitters, and allows a lot of fly balls. To me, that feels like a recipe for disaster in a hitter's park like Great American Ball Park.
The Cardinals haven't taken advantage of the hitter-friendly park in this series. They scored five runs in one of them, but you'd expect more than 14 runs in four games in a hitter's haven.
That is par for the course for this St. Louis offense, which ranks 22nd in MLB with an 89 wRC+ over its past 30 games. You can expect some expansive at-bats from this lineup, as they boast a 9% walk rate (12th) and 20.8% strikeout rate (ninth) in that span.
The issue is the Cardinals' lack of thump. They are 28th in home runs and ISO over 31 games, and Alec Burleson accounts for six of the 25 long balls. The hard-hitting lefty boasts a 164 wRC+ over the last month, and he's one of just two hitters on the roster with a wRC+ above 95.
The Reds will hand the ball to the consistently mediocre Brady Singer. The veteran righty owns a 4.66 ERA, a 5.03 xERA, and a 5.13 FIP. The one good thing about Singer is he usually pitches five or six innings and rarely gives up more than three or four runs.
Looking at his past eight starts, Singer pitched 5+ innings in all but one and allowed four or fewer runs in all eight. Hence why I called him "consistently mediocre." A team can live with three runs in five innings, but it makes him a decent innings-eater and nothing more.
If I'm keeping things honest, the Reds lineup has also been bad. They rank 28th in MLB with an 80 wRC+.
This matchup makes sense to me, though. The Reds struggle to hit velocity and have a 27% strikeout rate in the past month. Against McGreevy, a soft-tosser with a low strikeout rate, the Reds have a chance to get back on track.
You couldn't find two more polar-opposite struggling offenses if you tried. The DNA of this Reds team is hitting the ball out, hitting 45 homers in their last 32 games (2nd in MLB). The trio of Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, and Sal Stewart have gotten red hot, combining for 20 of the 45 homers.
At least I see a path for this Reds offense to put up a crooked number for one game. On the contrary, you really have to squint to see anything with the Cardinals.
I struggle to see why the Cardinals are favorites on the road here. Each team has a very flawed pitcher with a struggling lineup. However, the Reds have the proper approach to take advantage of McGreevy's home run problems. That's the difference maker in a matchup the oddsmakers view as pretty even.
Pick: Reds ML (play to -135)
