MLB Odds & Picks for Dodgers vs. Giants: Value on Alex Wood Early Against Tyler Anderson?
Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Wood
- The Dodgers are slight road favorites in San Francisco tonight against the Giants.
- Los Angeles sends Tyler Anderson to the mound in a lefty-lefty matchup against San Francisco's Alex Wood.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Dodgers vs. Giants Odds
|Time||9:45 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
After going 21-5 in July, the Los Angeles Dodgers opened up August on Monday with an 8-2 victory over Logan Webb and the rival Giants.
Contrarily, the Giants have suffered through a poor run of play of late and now find themselves 4.5 games out of the final wild-card spot in the NL. They now find themselves in a tough matchup Tuesday against Tyler Anderson, who has pitched to an 11-1 record with a 2.61 ERA in 110 innings this season.
San Francisco will count with Alex Wood, who has pitched to an ERA of 4.11 in 100 innings.
Anderson Has Been Solid For Dodgers
Anderson has cruised throughout each of his last five outings with an ERA of 1.11, and has pushed his ridiculous record to 11-1 on the season.
Anderson does appear due for some regression, however, with an xFIP of 3.95, even if pitching in front of a stellar Dodgers team defensively is always going to make things a lot easier.
Anderson has pitched to career-best marks in a number of areas, leaving 79.1% of runners on base and allowing a HR/FB of just 6.8%, which also suggests the amount of earned runs against could rise moving forward.
Anderson has pitched to a very modest QOPA of 4.26, which is nearly identical to his mark from a season ago.
Anderson will be backed by a red-hot Dodgers offense which has a wRC+ of 138 over the last 30 days with a wOBA of .363.
Los Angeles still holds very strong splits against left-handed pitching this season, but the marks are far less overwhelmingly dominant than its marks versus righties. The Dodgers have hit to a 117 wRC+ and .332 wOBA versus left-handed pitching this year.
Can Wood Continue to Lift Giants?
The Giants have again hit left-handed pitching far more effectively in 2022, and the team’s 114 wRC+ and .328 wOBA suggest the order may not be as drastically below the Dodgers in this situation as most would expect.
Wood projects to be closer to Anderson than most would expect as well, looking toward his xFIP of 3.24 on the season and an xERA of 3.67.
Wood has started to find the positive regression those numbers suggest was coming of late as he has managed a stellar ERA of 1.69 throughout his last five starts, and throughout the month of July Wood allowed an incredible WHIP of just 0.80.
Wood has suffered to far worse numbers as the ball games get deeper this seaosn, with an ERA of 5.40 in the sixth and a mark of 6.75 in the seventh. He has allowed a BA of .349 the third time through the order.
Wood has been in very steady form of late, and his underlying numbers suggest this is more just the kind of results he deserves this season than simply a run of favorable luck.
His biggest concern has been somewhat consistently pitching later into the ball games, and therefore isolating just the early innings could be an idea that holds merit betting this contest.
The Giants will be batting in their more favorable splits, and could find a way to scratch across a few runs against Anderson early in this game.
Therefore I think we could likely see San Francisco hang around early in this contest, and I see value getting the Giants +0.5 at -130 in the first five innings. I would play that down to -135.
Pick: San Francisco Giants First 5 Innings +0.5 -130 (Play to -135)
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