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Giants vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pitching Can Carry Giants to Victory (April 20)

Giants vs. Mets Odds, Picks, Predictions: Pitching Can Carry Giants to Victory (April 20) article feature image
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Getty Images. Pictured: San Francisco Giants pitcher Carlos Rodón.

  • The Giants are slight road favorites against the Mets on Wednesday.
  • Carlos Rodon has been stellar for the Giants and the Mets offense has struggled against lefties.
  • Kenny Ducey breaks down the matchup and shares his best bet below.

Giants vs. Mets Odds

Giants Odds -125
Mets Odds +105
Over/Under 6.5 (-105 / -115)
Time 7:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via Caesars. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After sweeping a doubleheader at home against the Giants on Tuesday, the Mets will look to secure the series win on Wednesday night in New York in the penultimate showdown between the teams this week. Could Carlos Rodon stand in their way?  Let’s take a look at this matchup.

San Francisco Giants

The Giants are currently 7-4, though their momentum was halted in the span of just seven or eight hours on Wednesday in a doubleheader against the Mets. Their five-game winning streak came to an end in the late afternoon, and they were unable to re-establish momentum that night.

It’s hard to knock them, though. San Francisco did well to take an early three-run lead, which was erased by a sloppy fifth from Alex Cobb. In extras, the Giants had a run erased thanks to a sensational stretch from Pete Alonso, who maintained contact with first base by mere inches. Then, Max Scherzer beckoned in the nightcap.

The Giants offense has been a strength early. They have put up 4.36 runs per game to rank 10th in the league, and together with some strong pitching — something the Giants were known for in 2021 — this team has been nearly unbeatable.

Speaking of pitching, they’ll get a lift here from Carlos Rodon, who was one of the best in the league a year ago. After posting a 2.68 expected ERA, which put him in the top 5% of the league a year ago, Rodon has allowed just two runs over his first two starts, a span of 12 innings. He’s brought the house down with 21 strikeouts in those frames, re-establishing himself as one of the top strikeout arms in baseball.


New York Mets

It’s very hard to beat the Mets at the moment. They’ve now won three in a row and six out of seven, sporting some excellent starting pitching despite not having Jacob deGrom. Opponents are hitting just .186 this year against Mets pitching — the top mark in the bigs — and New York is sporting an excellent +29 run differential.

It looked all too easy for the Mets on Tuesday after falling behind early in Game 1, but there’s the potential things could change Wednesday. For all the great things this offense has done, they rank just 14th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching. While the sample size makes that number hard to read into on its own, it does come a year after New York ranked 21st in wRC+ against lefties. Against one of the best southpaws in the game, these bats will be put to the test.

Chris Bassitt gets the call for New York, and that’s been good news to this point. He’s pitched twice, allowing just one run in 12 innings with 14 strikeouts, but a 2.98 xERA would indicate he may not be quite the elite starter he’s seemed to be so far. Bassitt — an All-Star a year ago — is a very good pitcher, and his 2.98 xERA is hardly bad. With that being said, a difference of over two runs would mean he’s in for just a tad bit of regression eventually.

Giants-Mets Pick

This matchup is, as the line would indicate, a tough call. With that being said, there are a few factors here we’ve addressed which I think tips the scale to the short road favorite.

New York’s been incredible at the plate, but it’s been simply average against left-handed pitchers. The arm it will face Wednesday will be anything but, and runs will surely be at a premium. On the other side of the coin, a capable Giants offense should find a way to scratch a few runs across against an over-performing Bassitt, and behind him will be a tired Mets bullpen after a doubleheader.

Given the number of innings both sides played yesterday, if either starter can get their team seven frames, they may win that team the game, and I think Rodon has the better chance here.

Pick: Giants ML (-120)

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