The Cincinnati Reds host the Cleveland Guardians on July 27, 2026. First pitch from Great American Ball Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT. The game will be broadcast on CLEG.
The Reds are favored by -174 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Guardians are +146 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 8.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Guardians vs Reds prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Guardians vs Reds Prediction
- Guardians vs Reds Pick: Under 8.5 (play to 7.5)
My Guardians vs Reds best bet is on the under total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Guardians vs Reds Odds
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -142 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | +146 |
| Reds Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +118 | 8.5 -112o / -108u | -174 |
- Guardians vs Reds moneyline: Guardians +146, Reds -174
- Guardians vs Reds over/under: 8.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Guardians vs Reds spread: Guardians +1.5 (-142), Reds -1.5 (+118)
Guardians vs Reds Probable Pitchers
| RHP Slade Cecconi (CLE) | Stat | RHP Chase Burns (CIN) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-7 | W-L | 12-1 |
| 0.9 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 3.0 |
| 4.60/4.71 | ERA / xERA | 2.42/3.14 |
| 4.48/4.37 | FIP / xFIP | 3.34/3.59 |
| 10.5% | K-BB% | 19.6% |
| 44.6% | GB% | 36.0% |
| .315 | BABIP | .264 |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 113 |
| 101 | Location+ | 100 |
Guardians vs Reds MLB Betting Preview
Guardians vs Reds Pick, Betting Analysis
The Guardians remain firmly in the AL Central race, sitting just 2.5 games behind the White Sox for first place. They lost five straight entering this all-Ohio series. So, they can use a get-right win.
Cleveland will give the ball to Slade Cecconi, who has totally flipped his season. Just seven starts into the season, Cecconi held a 6.56 ERA and gave up 4+ runs in five of his outings.
Since then, Cecconi has pitched 13 innings with a 3.57 ERA, a 4.11 xERA and 3.78 FIP. That is plenty good enough to be a back end of the rotation pitcher for a team in a playoff race.
Pitching is usually Cleveland's strength, and that's the case again. This season, the Guardians rank 23rd in MLB with a 96 wRC+. They rank 26th in MLB in home runs, and nobody on the roster has more than 11 long balls (Rhys Hoskins and Chase DeLauter).
Furthermore, only ONE Guardians player has an OPS of .800+, and it's DeLauter at .800 on the dot. The next best is Austin Hedges with a .759 OPS. You know something is wrong if Hedges is one of the best hitters on a team.
The offense can completely disappear at times, as it scored just four runs in its last four games.
The Reds certainly have the starting pitcher advantage here with the flamethrowing Chase Burns on the mound. In his first full MLB season, Burns is pitching to a 2.42 ERA with a 3.12 xERA and a 3.34 FIP.
Burns is far from a finished product. He can get away with his pure stuff, with his high 90s fastball leading to a 10.37 K/9. But he's a two-pitch pitcher, which can make him a bit predictable and leads to the occasional home run issue.
If you want an example of his dominance, he's given up more than two runs just three times in 19 starts. I can't picture the Guardians being one of the teams that finally gets to him.
Burns has to turn in a good start in this outing because this Reds offense is brutal. They have the worst wRC+ in the league this year, but they rank 18th with a 97 wRC+ in July.
During their improved run in July, Elly De La Cruz is playing like the superstar he is, leading the team with a 154 wRC+.
He's one of four players with a wRC+ better than 100, with Tyler Stephenson (137), Eugenio Suarez (116), and JJ Bleday (106) also fitting the criteria. Each of the latter three does most of their damage via the long ball. It could be a low-scoring evening for the Reds if they can't hit a few balls into the seats.
The under is the play for me. I know Great American Ball Park is a hitters' paradise, but these two offenses are two of the absolute worst in baseball. The over is 27-23 in home games for Cincinnati, but facing the Guardians should help the under.
Cecconi is solid enough to keep the Reds to two or three runs — and Burns could toss six or seven scoreless innings when he's locked in.
Pick: Under 8.5 (play to 7.5)
