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MLB Odds & Picks for Giants vs. Padres: Will San Diego Bounce Back on Monday?

MLB Odds & Picks for Giants vs. Padres: Will San Diego Bounce Back on Monday? article feature image
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Harry How/Getty Images. Pictured: Juan Soto.

  • The San Diego Padres begin a series with the San Francisco Giants on Monday night.
  • The Padres have had a disappointing start with their new-look lineup, getting swept by the Dodgers over the weekend.
  • Nick Martin explains why Monday's game will begin a new chapter for San Diego below.

Giants vs. Padres Odds

Giants Odds +154
Padres Odds -184
Over/Under 7.5 (-120 / -102)
Time 9:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Padres will look to shake off a very disappointing weekend sweep at the hands of the Dodgers in the first head-to-head series between the NL West rivals since San Diego’s massive trade deadline.

Blake Snell has been in tremendous form of late with an ERA of just 2.59 over his last six starts. He will be tasked with getting San Diego back on track Monday.

Alex Wood takes the mound for San Francisco and had been on a similar tear prior to getting crushed for six earned runs in just 5.1 innings last time out versus Los Angeles.

Will San Diego’s new lineup play closer to its potential Monday at home?


Giants Turn to Alex Wood

Gabe Kapler’s side has 12 of its last 17 contests. The Giants feature a sputtering offence that has hit to a wRC+ of just 84, and a wOBA of .284 has been a significant part of the problem.

The Giants will be hitting in their favorable split against a lefty and will hope that helps to turn around the recent offensive slump. Although, with how Snell has pitched of late, it’s still far from a great matchup for any side.

Dealing away Darin Ruf and Curt Casali at the deadline should also hurt the Giants’ splits against lefties moving forward, as each had been a key part of that strength this season.

San Francisco’s bullpen has remained in a consistent struggle as well, pitching to the fifth-worst ERA (4.82) over the last 30 days, and it’s quite likely the Giants will need a strong outing from Wood to find success Monday.

Wood had been in strong form prior to being dismantled at the hands of the Dodgers on Tuesday. Even factoring in that start, has still pitched to a steady ERA of 3.13 over his last five outings.

On the season, Wood’s xERA of 3.72 suggests his results should stay just below that.

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Will Padres Bounce Back?

San Diego managed just four runs in three games throughout its weekend set with the Dodgers in what was a notable letdown in the team’s first full series with Juan Soto, Josh Bell and Brandon Drury all in the lineup.

A three-game sample is not overly relevant, however, and we know this group has some scary upside moving forward with that trio in tow and the long-awaited return of Fernando Tatis Jr. on the horizon.

On the season, the Padres have managed very modest results altogether versus left-handed pitching, with a 101 wRC+ and a .309 wOBA, which should make the new additions to the lineup all the more important.

Drury has been lethal against left-handed pitching this season with a .662 SLG rate in 110 PAs, Bell has slugged with a strong clip of .494 versus lefties, and Soto has slugged a career-low .392 — a mark that should tick up considerably moving forward.

Snell has shown spectacular form of late, with an ERA of 2.59 over his last 31.3 innings and a more reasonable WHIP of 1.21 He’s also averaging 8.16 strikeouts per game during that span.

Over his last three outings, Snell has walked just three batters. If he can continue to display improved command moving forward, the strong results should be especially likely to continue.

Giants-Padres Pick

Snell has managed some truly elite results of late, and there are a lot of underlying indicators that suggest the one-time Cy Young winner is due to continue his strong play moving forward.

We saw some glimpses of what this San Diego offense could be capable of moving forward against Colorado last week — before it hit a wall in a somewhat embarrassing series versus Los Angeles.

I think we will see San Diego get back on track with a solid output against Wood on Monday. Then after facing Wood, the Padres will see a San Francisco bullpen that has been in notably poor form of late.

We know this new-look Padres roster should be elite moving forward. At +120, I believe we have value backing the Padres to bounce back with a run-line cover in this spot.

Pick: Padres -1.5 (+123 · Play to +115)

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