MLB Playoff Picks, Odds, Picks for Guardians vs Yankees
Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton
Guardians vs. Yankees Game 1 Odds
|Time||7:37 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The New York Yankees’ postseason will get underway Tuesday night at Yankee Stadium, a run which features lofty expectations after a spectacular regular season, winning 99 games in a very crowded AL East.
The Yankees are -200 favorites in Game 1 of the series with Gerrit Cole on the mound against Cal Quantrill.
Will Cole make good on his $36 million salary and lead a talented Yankees lineup to a 1-0 series lead at home?
Can Quantrill Limit Damage For Guardians?
Cleveland squeaked by the Rays with back-to-back one-run victories, and I think that is about the perfect summary of the Guardians’ season.
The Guardians do all the little things right, they pitch extremely well, get runners in from third with less than two outs at a high rate, and a number of other things that supposedly pay off in playoff baseball.
However, the Yankees’ lineup is far more potent than the Rays, and Quantrill is a good level below the guys Cleveland has pitched to this point in this postseason.
Quantrill has ran with some favorable luck all season long, with an xERA of 4.31 nearly a full run higher than his actual mark, and his xFIP of 4.38 is another clear indication that Quantrill could be overrated entering the playoffs.
Quantrill has pitched to considerable worse results on the road this season, with a 3.53 ERA and 1.39 WHIP compared to his elite home marks as well, and New York’s crowd will surely love to get on Quantrill early and often.
Right-handed batters hold a miss-rate of just 15% versus Quantrill this season, which is the lowest mark in the league among qualified starters.
Quantrill struck out just 13% of right-handed batters faced altogether this season, which was the third lowest mark among starters with over 80 innings pitched this season, and the Yankees’ high-powered righties such as Aaron Judge, DJ LeMahieu and Giancarlo Stanton could be dangerous in this spot.
Considering those numbers, it’s far from surprising that Quantrill has seen right-handed batters slug at a steady clip of .405 altogether, and .451 on the road.
Yankees’ Offense Set To Feast
The Yankees’ lineup has been one of the most potent in baseball versus right-handed pitching this season with a wRC+ of 113, and will hope their power-based style can prove effective this postseason.
This spot against Quantrill will likely be the best matchup the Yankees get versus the Guardians’ tough staff, even if Quantrill has produced dominant surface-level results since the All-Star break.
Quantrill’s lack of any kind of swing-and-miss to righties is concerning, and I like the way the heart of the Yankees’ lineup matches up.
Stanton has slugged .734 in 75 plate appearances throughout his postseason career, and is possibly being looked at as an underrated X-factor for the Yankees entering the postseason.
Stanton slugged .538 over the last seven regular season games, and although some pitching matchups in this series may leave him exposed, I do not believe it will be Quantrill.
Stanton has slugged .492 versus right-handed pitchers this season, which is drastically better than his overall splits.
Stanton’s greatest concern has been a dreadful whiff rate, but that flaw could be hidden against a whiff-averse pitcher like Quantrill.
Cole has had somewhat of an up-and-down season, even if his overall xERA of 3.31 is still a very strong mark, and comes with some highly encouraging underlying numbers.
It’s the nature of Cole’s bad days which seems to hang around at the forefront of a number of observers’ minds, and his disastrous postseason outing last year versus Boston in which he allowed three earned runs in just two innings will certainly be touched on in the lead-up to this game as well.
These prices all look pretty fair, although I do just feel like at the end of the day the Yankees will find a way to take advantage of Quantrill and win in this spot.
That said, -200 to back a starter who has simply not been outright dominant in Cole is a little intimidating, and has me thinking my favorite play is looking towards a player prop.
The Yankees could put together a steady day offensively starting out against Quantrill, and I believe that Stanton could be a steady prop target, considering the long prices available and the splits involved in this matchup.
Judge and LeMahieu will likely be popular takes as well, and I can obviously see the merit in that and believe some of the Yanks’ top righties can do some damage in this spot
Stanton is being offered at +133 to get over 1.5 bases at BetRivers, and I like a play on that down to a price of +120.
Pick: Giancarlo Stanton Over 1.5 Total Bases +133 (Play to +120)