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KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Wednesday, June 10): Expect a Pitchers Duel in Bears vs. Dinos?

KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Wednesday, June 10): Expect a Pitchers Duel in Bears vs. Dinos? article feature image

Matt Brown/Angels Baseball LP/Getty Images. Pictured: Drew Rucinski

KBO favorites remained hot on Tuesday with another 4-1 day, and moved to 21-4 (84%) over the past six days as part of a 44-16 (71.6%) 11-day run.

During the past six days, the average odds for those favorites has been -182 (implied 64.5%), meaning that they were expected to go 16-9 in those 25 games and won nearly 20% more often than expected.

My KBO betting has cratered during the same period, with five wins in my past 25 wagers, despite gaining closing line value (“CLV”) on every single bet. I have lost count both of the number of double plays that my teams have hit into, and the number of two-out, two-strike RBIs that my opponents have recorded over the past few weeks.

The level of negative variance has been unbelievably unsustainable. And although CLV is undoubtedly no consolation during an incredible losing streak — and as my frustration grows by the day — I have continued to predict opening moneylines and totals with extreme accuracy.

All that I can do from that point is search for value, try to beat the closing number, and wait for the results to follow.

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 42-63 (-14.32 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 34-26 (+9.98 Units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model

Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Tuesday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos

  • Bears moneyline: TBD
  • Dinos moneyline: TBD
  • Over/under: TBD
  • Time: 5:00 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN

Probable Pitchers: Doosan Bears (Raul Alcantara) vs. NC Dinos (Drew Rucinski)

After combining for 23 hits, 12 walks, and 20 runs on Tuesday, with a pair of young starters on the hill, the Bears and Dinos will send out more established arms for their fifth meeting of the season on Wednesday.

Drew Rucinski (3.21 FIP; 3.91 in 2019) will hope to extend the Dinos’ winning streak to seven games against Raul Alcantara (4.38 FIP; 3.93 in 2019) and the Bears.

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

Rucinski sits around 91-92 mph with his fastball, and has good arm-side run on his two-seamer, which he pairs with a curveball (79 mph), slider (84 mph), and splitter:

BONUS:#KBO | @DrewRucinski

— taewoongi (태웅) 24-6 (@taewoongii) May 23, 2020

As you can see in the second clip above, his slider is particularly nasty, and has even fooled the KBO umpires.

Through six starts (five quality), Rucinski has upped his strikeout rate from 16.3% to 24% compared to last season while maintaining his walk rate and improving his command from 2.64 K/BB to 3.80.

His opponent, Raul Alcantara, had also improved his strikeout rate, from 13.8% to 19.9%, but his walk rate has also increased from 3.7% to 5.8%, albeit in a small sample.

Based upon his FIP over the past two seasons, Alcantara is somewhere between 6-9% better than a league-average KBO pitcher.

However, compared to those same pitchers, Alcantara’s velocity is off the charts:

WOW Raul Alcantara just hit 160 km/h (99 mph!) 🔥

Love the hitter's reaction too. #DoosanBears

— Justin Choi 🇰🇷 (@justinochoi) June 4, 2020

He pairs the big fastball with a changeup (86 mph), slider (89 mph), and rare curveball (83 mph). Still, Alcantara has averaged just six strikeouts per nine-innings throughout his career, across all levels, including a peak of 6.8 K/9 in Double-A. I don’t expect him to maintain his significantly improved strikeout rate going forward.

Perhaps the Bears have modified Alcantara’s pitch mix to optimize his talent, but I view Rucinski as the more effective pitcher.

The Dinos lineup has been slightly better to date and continues to improve with a surging Aaron Altherr (140 wrC+) serving as a second cleanup hitter for the back of the order:

#KBO stats: I know everyone hates RBI these days, but something to digest: NC Dinos' Aaron Altherr has climbed to 2nd place in RBI with 30, one back of Kia Tigers' Preston Tucker. Altherr has been batting 7th or 8th in every game since May 21. He has 26 RBIs in those 17 games.

— Jeeho Yoo (@Jeeho_1) June 9, 2020

I project the Dinos as 59.4% favorites for Wednesday, and I would bet the Dinos to -125 (implied 55.5%), which is a 3.9% edge compared to my projection.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Bears at +175 (implied 36.4%) or better, which is a 4.1% edge compared to my projection (40.5%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I project the total at 11.35 runs and would bet Over 10.5 (+100) or Over 10 (-110) at a 3.9% edge.

See all of Wednesday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Bears-Dinos game, and Wednesday’s other KBO and CPBL games.

Doosan Bears vs. NC Dinos Picks

  • Doosan Bears +175 (1 unit)
  • Doosan Bears Team Total, Over 4.5 (+105, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]

Full KBO Betting Card for June 10

  • Doosan Bears +175 (1 unit)
  • Doosan Bears Team Total, Over 4.5 (+105, 0.5 units)
  • Hanwha Eagles Team Total Over 4 (-112, 0.5 units)
  • Kiwoom Heroes Team Total, Over 5.5 (-125, 0.5 units)
  • Samsung Lions Team Total, Over 3.5 (-105, 0.5 units)
  • LG Twins Team Total, Over 4.5 (-125, 0.5 units)
  • SK Wyverns Team Total, Over 3.5 (-140, 0.5 units)

KBO Year to Date: 42-63 (-14.32 Units)

Full CPBL Betting Card for June 10

  • N/A

CPBL Year to Date: 34-26 (+9.98 Units)

Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 10

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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