Venezuela will play the USA in the World Baseball Classic final on Tuesday, March 17, at loanDepot Park in Miami, Florida.
The game will start at 8 p.m. ET and can be streamed live on FOX.
Either Venezuela will claim its 1st baseball world title, or the USA will win its 2nd, following its 2017 victory over Puerto Rico at Dodger Stadium.
Here's my Venezuela vs USA Prediction and World Baseball Classic picks for Tuesday, March 17.
Venezuela vs USA Prediction, Picks
- Zerillo's Picks: Over 8.5 | YRFI | Pitcher Props
Venezuela vs USA Odds, Spread, Over/Under
| Venezuela Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 +105 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | +220 |
| USA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -130 | 8.5 -115 / -105 | -280 |
- Venezuela vs USA Moneyline: Venezuela +220, USA -280
- Venezuela vs USA Run Line: Venezuela +1.5 (+105), USA -1.5 (-130)
- Venezuela vs USA Total: Over/Under 8.5 Runs (-115 / -105)
Venezuela vs USA Picks for World Baseball Classic Final
My projection aligns more closely with Team USA's side of the market for Tuesday's WBC Final against Venezuela, as they have a clear pitching edge and a schedule-rest advantage after an additional off day.
While the two starters project on either side of major league average (4.16 FIP, 13.8% K-BB% in 2025) composite projections don't necessarily see that significant a gap between the Mets' Nolan McLean (projected FIP range of 3.78 to 3.93, K-BB% range from 13.1% to 15.1%) and the Diamondbacks' Eduardo Rodriguez (projected FIP from 4.22 to 4.52, K-BB% from 11.3% to 12.7%).
However, their 2025 results (3.56 xRA, 2.78 xFIP, 21.8% K-BB% for McLean & 4.51 xERA, 4.44 xFIP, 12% K-BB% for Rodriguez) and discrepancy in pitch modeling data (117 Stuff+, 113 Pitching+, 3.45 botERA for McLean & 91 Stuff+, 91 Pitching+, 4.76 botERA for Rodriguez) more accurately reflect my opinion of the relative tier gap between the pair.
Both pitchers struggled in their WBC openers. It's unclear whether McLean (3 IP, 2 H, 3 R, 2 BB, 4 K, 2 HR allowed) was hungover like his teammates, aloof like his manager, or merely off his game against Italy. Still, I'd expect a sharper version of him against a tougher Venezuela lineup.
Regardless, the USA bullpen is much fresher and deeper than Venezuela's.
Conversely, Rodriguez (2 2/3 IP, 3 H, 3 R, 1 BB, 5 K, 2 HR allowed) probably needs to get through a third (and maybe a fourth) inning this time to give Venezuela a chance to pull the upset.
He allowed a left-on-left homer to Juan Soto, but E-Rod's career splits (career 3.69 xFIP, 18.3% K-BB% vs. lefties, 4.24, 14.2% vs. righties) give Mark DeRosa some options for his starting lineup on Tuesday.
While I doubt DeRosa sits both Gunnar Henderson and Roman Anthony following their semifinal homers (or Bryce Harper for Paul Goldschmidt, even against a lefty), considering Rodriguez may get two turns through the opposing order, I'd be surprised if one of Alex Bregman or Byron Buxton doesn't start.
The lineup provided above projects as one of the best defensive units I have ever seen, both on paper in my model and thus far in practice (PCA is arguably the better center fielder, but Byron Buxton is clearly not permitted to play in a corner by the Twins). DeRosa could then pinch-hit with one or both Anthony or Henderson where needed as Venezuela turns to what should be a tiring bullpen.
Daniel Palencia, Eduard Bazardo, Angel Zerpa, and Andres Machado can keep any lineup in check with elite stuff. Still, while they haven't thrown more than 15 pitches in either of their past two appearances, all would be working for the second consecutive day, third time in four days, and fourth time in one week, dating back to their Pool D finale against the Dominican Republic.
In mid-March, I don't think their arms will be fully stretched out, and I suspect one or two of the four will underperform their standards if called upon. Additionally, Royals' righty Luinder Avila (32 pitches) and former MLB lefty Ricardo Sanchez are likely unavailable after multi-inning stints on Monday.
Conversely, Team USA's bullpen is both historically strong and deep. By FIP projections, they have the five best available relief pitchers in the game.
Team USA has enough elite bullpen arms (nine with a sub-four FIP projection if you include Bednar) to suppress even an elite offense for an entire nine-inning game — they don't need to push McLean too aggressively if he struggles.
However, if E-Rod falters, Antonio Senzatela (career 5.24 xERA, 4.60 xFIP, 7.7% K-BB%) may need to help build what some would describe as a "Rockie" bridge to Venezuela's higher-leverage relief arms.
Lineup construction for both managers has been strange, but the Americans still have the edge. The size of the advantage depends upon whether DeRosa optimizes by handedness.
Venezuela's offense is elite, projecting for a 124 wRC+ against righties and a 126 against lefties. For context, the Yankees (119 in 2025, 118 in 2024) were tops in MLB the past two seasons, and couldn't crack the +20% threshold.
Still, the United States projects at a 135 wRC+ when it deploys its optimal offense against righties, or a 132 against lefties. DeRosa is letting guys swing the bat rather than play smallball like Venezuela (arguably a negative-EV approach regardless, but especially with hitters this talented).
Ultimately, Venezuela needs length and quality from Rodriguez to pull the upset. If he gets knocked out early, their bullpen depth isn't there to piece together the innings, just like Italy didn't have the depth to cover the game against Venezuela (which forced Michael Lorenzen into a piggyback role).
Near the end of that game, I tried to predict where the final would open and settled on -280 before using the model. I found it amusing because that is just about where the market opened (-275 to -285). That doesn't factor into my analysis, but given that my simulated projection is also at the midpoint of the betting market, I don't see value on either side of the moneyline or the spread for this WBC final.
Despite anticipated aggressive bullpen usage on either side of this contest, I still projected the total north of 9 runs, and would bet Over 8.5 to -120 or Over 9 at even money.
However, you can also take the strikeout total under 4.5 for both pitchers, as I set them both closer to 3.5, given their quicker hooks in a championship game.
Based on the above lineup, the USA's lineup projects at roughly a 22.5% strikeout rate against left-handed pitching, right near league average (22.2% in 2025). Venezuela's offense, which features difficult guys to whiff in Luis Arraez, Maikel Garcia, and Gleyber Torres, is closer to 19.5% against righties.
Finally, given my projected total relative to the market, I would set the yes run first inning or YRFI prop odds near -140 and take it up to about -125.
Picks:
- Over 8.5 (bet to -120 or 9 +100)
- YRFI (bet to -125)
- Nolan Mclean Under 4.5 Strikeouts (bet to -110)
- Eduardo Rodriguez Under 4.5 Strikeouts (bet to 3.5, +100)
