Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Felix Hernandez
Betting odds: Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles, 7:05 p.m. ET
- Mariners (Felix Hernandez): -122
- Orioles (Andrew Cashner): +111
- Over/under: 9.5
Bet to Watch
There’s been plenty of talk regarding King James prop bets over the past month — and rightfully so. I haven’t seen many articles out there about the other King, though.
No, not that King. “King Felix” Hernandez of the Seattle Mariners. The picture up top probably gave that one away, eh?
Tonight, he and the Mariners begin their series in Baltimore against the lowly Orioles. There’s actually been some significant reverse line movement coming in on the Orioles, but I ain’t telling you to bet on the Mariners straight up.
Instead, I want you to bet on Hernandez to rack up more than five strikeouts.
The King isn’t close to as good as he used to be. In fact, he’s throwing 6-7 mph more slowly than he used to. His 5.14 ERA is troublesome, and one has to wonder how much more the 14-year vet has left in the tank.
Despite Hernandez’s declining numbers, his matchup against the Orioles tonight is prime for Ks. FantasyLabs is projecting him to get 6.8 strikeouts, which is tied for the second-highest of the day with Justin Verlander, whose strikeout prop is 8/8.5. (I took the under.)
The Orioles’ right-handed-heavy lineup is strikeout prone and Baltimore’s projected lineup has a strikeout rate against righties of 28.2% — second highest of the slate.
The over/under of 5 (-115 on both sides) implies Felix will get 5.2 strikeouts, which is 1.6 lower than Labs is projecting and the only strikeout prop with more than a 30% differential. However, as is frequently the case, another book has a better price — 5 (over +103). This mini plus-money payout makes it even more enticing and a much better value.
The bet: Felix Hernandez over 5 strikeouts (+103)