Check out my favorite MLB player prop picks today for Thursday, September 17.
MLB Player Props Today
- Seth Lugo 3+ Earned Runs – No (48c Kalshi; Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed, Play to 54c)
- Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases – Yes (43c Polymarket, Play to 47c)
Royals vs Astros Player Prop
This is a pretty ugly one on the surface, as relative to expectations Lugo has been among the more disappointing starters in MLB with a 4.99 ERA across 164 innings. Throughout his last 53 and 1/3 innings, though, Lugo's underlying metrics have improved considerably, as he holds an xERA of 4.19 and a FIP of 3.81.
The Astros do not provide the worst matchup for a righty who's been torched by left-handed batters this season, but offer respectable splits versus righties. Obviously Yordan Alvarez is a nightmare matchup for Lugo (and the majority of pitchers), but there's not a lot of left-handed power beyond Alvarez.
Since the All-Star break, Houston has hit to a wRC+ of 99 versus RHP. The underlying metrics are even more concerning, as it holds a 27th ranked xwOBA of .296 and a 24th ranked xSLG, while also ranking 20th in BB/K ratio.
At 48c we look to be getting a good enough number to take a stab on an ugly one, as Lugo's recent underlying metrics suggest he's been closer to league average than poor, while the Astros' recent offensive results versus righties are quietly not overly strong.
Pick: Seth Lugo 3+ Earned Runs – No (48c Kalshi; Under 2.5 Earned Runs Allowed, Play to 54c)
Tigers vs White Sox Player Prop
Greene has been on an absolute tear since returning from the IL on September 1st, as he's slugged .702 with an OPS of 1.112. In 153 PAs since the All-Star break he's slugged .556 with an .394 expected weighted on-base average. He's slugged .492 versus right-handed pitching this season and gets a solid matchup versus veteran righty Erick Fedde.
Though Fedde has been effective where it counts recently, he still holds an xERA of 4.77 and an xFIP of 4.75 throughout his last 44 and 2/3 innings of work. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 87 in that span, and a strikeout rate of 17.7%. And though Fedde holds reverse splits on paper this season, he's allowed an xFIP of 5.00 versus lefties and a 43% hard-hit rate.
At 43c we seem to be getting a good price to back Greene to continue his recent tear in a plus matchup for extra-base hits.
Pick: Riley Greene Over 1.5 Total Bases – Yes (43c Polymarket, Play to 47c)
