The Colorado Rockies host the San Diego Padres on September 17, 2026. First pitch from Coors Field is scheduled for 3:10 p.m. ET. The game will be broadcast on COLR.
The Padres are favored by -164 on the moneyline and by -1.5 on the run line. The Rockies are +138 on the moneyline and +1.5 on the run line. The total is set at 10.5 runs.
Find my MLB picks and Padres vs Rockies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, weather report, and more.
Padres vs Rockies Prediction
- Padres vs Rockies Pick: Rockies F5 (+120)
My Padres vs Rockies best bet is on Colorado to lead after five innings. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Padres vs Rockies Odds
| Padres Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 10.5 -124o / 102u | -164 |
| Rockies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -111 | 10.5 -124o / 102u | +138 |
- Padres vs Rockies moneyline: Padres -164, Rockies +138
- Padres vs Rockies over/under: 10.5 (-124o / +102u)
- Padres vs Rockies spread: Padres -1.5 (-108), Rockies +1.5 (-111)
Padres vs Rockies Probable Pitchers
| Michael King (RHP, SD) | Stat | Tanner Gordon (RHP, COL) |
|---|---|---|
| 11-9 | W-L | 1-4 |
| 2.3 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.7 |
| 3.03 / 4.43 | ERA / xERA | 5.55 / 4.57 |
| 4.23 / 4.36 | FIP / xFIP | 4.45 / 4.39 |
| 11.5 | K-BB% | 14.7 |
| 44.9 | GB% | 34.2 |
| .247 | BABIP | .350 |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 86 |
| 101 | Location+ | 109 |
Padres vs Rockies MLB Betting Preview, Prediction
Michael King has seven straight quality starts, allowing 10 runs (nine earned) over 44.2 innings, but has done so with a mere 12.7 K-BB% (11.5% season) and 8.1% Barrels/BBE (8.5% season), essentially league-average peripherals.
A .229 BABIP and 96 LOB% have driven his recent success and are completely unsustainable, as are his .247 and 82.2% season marks.
King’s best season estimator is a 4.23 FIP and, giving him some credit for recent success, I have his weighted credentials around four and one-third runs per nine, far higher than his 3.03 ERA.
Hunter Goodman has been out of the Rockies lineup the last couple of days with a sore thumb, but hopefully he returns on Thursday. Surging rookie TJ Rumfield (130 wRC+ vs RHP, 163 wRC+ L30 days) also sat Wednesday, but should be back in there Thursday.
With them, Colorado’s projected lineup averages a 106 wRC+ and .217 ISO vs RHP, a 102 wRC+ at home and 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Rockies still have plenty of problems, but we can’t really count offensive production among their largest persistent issues anymore.
The Padres have a quality defense, with Thursday’s projected starters having accumulated a combined 22 FRV.
The bullpen is monstrous and something we want to avoid. Their 3.37 FIP, 3.24 xFIP, and 3.07 SIERA combine for the second-best estimators in the league over the last 30 days, while the Padres are also BARTOLO’s top-ranked relief unit of the season (3.47 wFIP).
Tanner Gordon is on the opposite end of the spectrum from King with a .350 BABIP and 69.5 LOB%. His 5.55 ERA through 97.1 innings (10 starts, 27 appearances) sits well above estimators ranging from a 4.08 SIERA to a 4.73 dERA. He’s walked just 4.2% of batters this season.
I have Gordon and King rated extremely similarly overall this season, but have to give King the slight edge because all of his work has come in a starting role.
However, a San Diego projected lineup (same as Wednesday) averaging a 111 wRC+ on the road, but 91 wRC+ vs RHP and 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days may be a bit behind the Rockies (closer to even if Goodman does not play). At least Ethan Salas homered on Wednesday and may be finally pulling himself out of negative wRC+ territory.
The projected Colorado defense is not nearly as bad as their team season numbers (-22 Runs Prevented), having combined for 3 FRV.
The Colorado bullpen is atrocious. They have the second-worst indicators in the league over the last month and are ranked dead last via BARTOLO.
This all seems pretty close except for the bullpen portion, even if the Rockies don’t have any clear edges.
They are at home, and that counts for a little, which makes the current number a bit too large.
On Tuesday night, I was burned by a Colorado F5, then they pulled ahead in the 6th. You could take the larger full game number on Thursday, a more attractive proposition on prediction markets where you can trade pieces off later in the game. This is something I considered, but I simply see the larger edge in the F5, where you don’t have to worry about Morejon and Miller.
I’m offering 43.5% (+130) for Colorado F5 on Novig, which hasn’t been taken yet, but would be fine playing it down to +110 with a better number currently being offered just about everywhere.
Pick: Rockies F5 (+120, FanDuel, 0.5u | Bet to +110)
