Welcome to The Leadoff, a daily column featuring our top expert’s MLB picks, predictions, and best bets for today’s slate.
With Sean Zerillo making significant changes to the structure of Opening Pitch, we thought we could use another similar daily piece breaking down a few of our favorite bets on the day’s top games.
Each day, Monday through Sunday, one of our top staff members will provide news, notes, and betting analysis for that day’s group of games.
Matt Trollo has that job for Thursday, September 17.
MLB Picks, Predictions Today
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- Dodgers -153, 1.53u | Bet to -180
- Rockies F5 +130, 0.5u | Bet to +110
- Royals +127, 0.5u | Bet to +115
- Angels +114, 0.5u | Bet to +105
Dodgers @ Reds Picks
We currently do not have confirmation on the Dodger pitcher here. Rotowire is floating Bobby Miller, who hasn’t gone beyond three innings in any outing in the minors, but did throw 53 pitches in his major league debut this season. Projections run the gamut between four and five for Miller.
There’s a chance this is Sasaki, which wouldn’t be that much different from a run prevention standpoint, and there’s a chance this is a full on bullpen game, which might get the best results.
My overall point is that none of these options are as poor as Brady Singer, who is now sporting a 5.42 xERA to match his 5.38 ERA after allowing 38 runs over his last 47.1 innings with a 5.7 K-BB% and 46 HardHit%.
In fact, Singer is up to a 7.23 ERA and 6.24 xERA during this stretch.
On the season, LHBs have scorched him to the tune of a .383 wOBA and .354 xwOBA, while RHBs have a .329 wOBA, but .351 xwOBA.
Even expecting Will Smith will sit for the day game after a night game, the projected Dodger lineup still averages a 116 wRC+ and .183 ISO vs RHP, 115 wRC+ on the road and 117 wRC+ over the last 30 days. Hunter Feduccia’s 89 wRC+ on the road is the lowest number for any projected Dodger in any of the three splits.
This, compared to a Cincinnati projected lineup averaging just a 78 wRC+ against RHP, 80 wRC+ at home and 79 wRC+ over the last month. That’s a pretty reliable 35+ point wRC+ edge for the Dodgers overall in addition to the half run I’ll give them for virtually anybody who pitches against Singer.
The FRV (Fielding Run Value) and BRR (Base Running Runs) edges are projected to be smaller, but still in favor of the Dodgers by 8 FRV and 3 BRR respectively.
Finally, the Dodgere pen estimators (FIP, xFIP, SIERA) have been more than a run better than the Cincinnati pen over the last month with the teams ranking 4th and 28th. BARTOLO has the two units separated by 17 teams and more than one-third of a run of wFIP.
Pricing the Dodgers below -200 here seems to be an error no matter who they pitch.
I was able to catch 60.5% on Novig, which works out to -153, but am fine playing this up to around -180.
Pick: Dodgers -153, 1.53u | Bet to -180
Padres @ Rockies Picks
Michael King has seven straight quality starts, allowing 10 runs (nine earned) over 44.2 innings, but has done so with a mere 12.7 K-BB% (11.5% season) and 8.1% Barrels/BBE (8.5% season), essentially league average peripherals.
A .229 BABIP and 96 LOB% have been major drivers of his recent success and are completely unsustainable, as are his .247 and 82.2% season marks.
King’s best season estimator is a 4.23 FIP and giving him some credit for recent success, I have his weighted credentials around four and one-third runs per nine, far higher than his 3.03 ERA.
Hunter Goodman has been out of the lineup the last couple of days with a sore thumb, but hopefully he returns Thursday. Surging rookie TJ Rumfield (130 wRC+ vs RHP, 163 wRC+ L30 days) also sat Wednesday, but should be back in there Thursday.
With them, Colorado’s projected lineup averages a 106 wRC+ and .217 ISO vs RHP, a 102 wRC+ at home and 95 wRC+ over the last 30 days. The Rockies still have plenty of problems, but we can’t really count offensive production among their largest persistent issues anymore.
The Padres have a quality defense with Thursday’s projected starters having accumulated a combined 22 FRV.
The bullpen is monstrous and something we want to avoid. Their 3.37 FIP, 3.24 xFIP and 3.07 SIERA combine for the second best estimators in the league over the last 30 days, while the Padres are also BARTOLO’s top ranked relief unit on the season (3.47 wFIP).
Tanner Gordon is on the opposite end of the spectrum from King with a .350 BABIP and 69.5 LOB%. His 5.55 ERA through 97.1 innings (10 starts, 27 appearances) sits well above estimators ranging from a 4.08 SIERA to a 4.73 dERA. He’s walked just 4.2% of batters this season.
I have Gordon and King rated extremely similarly overall this season, but have to give King the slight edge because all of his work has come in a starting role.
However, a San Diego projected lineup (same as Wednesday) averaging a 111 wRC+ on the road, but 91 wRC+ vs RHP and 92 wRC+ over the last 30 days may be a bit behind the Rockies (closer to even if Goodman does not play). At least Ethan Salas homered on Wednesday and my be finally pulling himself out of negative wRC+ territory.
The projected Colorado defense is not nearly as bad as their team season numbers (-22 Runs Prevented), having combined for 3 FRV.
The Colorado bullpen is atrocious. They have the second worst indicators in the league over the last month and are ranked dead last via BARTOLO.
This all seems pretty close except for the bullpen portion, even if the Rockies don’t have any clear edges.
They are at home and that counts a for a little, which makes the current number a bit too large.
On Tuesday night, I was burned by a Colorado F5 then they pulled ahead in the 6th. You could take the larger full game number on Thursday, a more attractive proposition on prediction markets where you can trade pieces off later in the game. This is something I considered, but simply see the larger edge in the F5, where you don’t have to worry about Morejon and Miller.
I’m offering 43.5% (+130) for Colorado F5 on Novig, which hasn’t been taken yet, but would be fine playing it down to +110 with a better number currently being offered just about everywhere.
Pick: Rockies F5 +130, 0.5u | Bet to +110
Royals @ Astros Picks
Seth Lugo is no longer a trustable pitcher, having allowed at least five runs in 30% of his starts this season. His 10.3 K-BB% is lowest since his rookie season and his 4.99 ERA matches a 5.07 xERA.
However, his SIERA (4.59) and xFIP (4.47) run a bit lower with a .329 BABIP and 66.8 LOB%. He's also allowed a more league average-like .318 xwOBA over the last 30 days. I have him closer to four and a half on the season.
Although RHBs have hit him well (.322 wOBA, .321 xwOBA), Lugo’s main problem is still LHBs (.369 wOBA, .356 xwOBA), the same thing that has plagued him the last couple of years.
Besides the likely MVP, what do the Astros lack? Hitters from the left side. In addition to Alvarez, they have Daulton Varsho, but he has just an 80 wRC+ vs RHP this year and 60 wRC+ over the last month. Who else are the going to play? Taylor Trammell and LaMonte Wade Jr.?
Only three projected Astros exceed a 100 wRC+ over the last month and even Alvarez (127) has calmed down.
Lugo generally has a strong defense behind him and with the infield back intact, Thursday’s unit projects for 16 FRV.
The bullpen is a problem with he 6th worst estimators over the last month with BARTOLO ranking them even worse (26th).
Ehtan Pecko is being projected by Rotowire, but has not been confirmed. It seems a reasonable guess for a fluttering rotation. He’s faced between 18 and 21 batters in all five of his outings and while the 4.30 ERA appears competent, he doesn’t have a non-pitch modeling estimator below five and a half.
There is some disagreement between his 5.09 Bot ERA and 100 Pitching+, which isn’t a surprise in a small sample, but with a 3.1 K-BB% and 10.4% Barrels/BBE, he’s not backing that 114 P+ sinker and 118 P+ slider with positive results.
If you think Lugo has a platoon issue, LHBs have a .374 wOBA and .454 xwOBA against Pecko and the Royals have a lot more potency from that side with Carter Jensen, Jac Caglianone and Vinnie Pasquantino all sitting above a 110 wRC+ against RHP this year.
The Houston defense projects -9 FRV with Varsho (6) and Christian Walker (4) their only strongly rated defenders.
The Astros do have Josh Hader looming, but are still just the 14th ranked bullpen from BARTOLO and also 14th in estimators over the last 30 days.
Without an F5 market, due to Houston’s TBD, it’s either full game or wait and I think I like this spot for the Royals just a bit too much to wait on +126, but this is where I’d certainly advocate a prediction market. Not only is Novig floating a better number (44% or +127), but you can trade out at better value if it turns out to be someone better than Pecko.
Pick: Royals +127, 0.5u | Bet to +115
Twins @ Angels Picks
Taj Bradley has solidified himself in the Minnesota rotation, posting a strong season with a 27.3 K%, but still with a few too many walks (10.3%) and too much hard contact (9.3% Barrels/BBE, 45.2 HardHit%).
Nevertheless, his 3.81 ERA is just barely below estimators ranging from a 3.88 SIERA to a 4.46 Bot ERA (100 Pitching+). With only a 4.28 dERA also otherwise being above four, it’s been an encouraging year.
Bradley will have a very enviable matchup against an awful LAA offense with the projected lineup averaging a mere 85 wRC+ against RHP, 80 wRC+ at home and only a marginally higher 92 wRC+ over the last month.
The lineup is more balanced than it’s been in years, but that hardly matters with batters from either side of the plate between a .298 and .312 wOBA and xwOBA against Bradley this year. Plus, the only quality bat they’ve added has been Wade Meckler, who’s 130 wRC+ against RHP (135 wRC+ L30 days) comes with just a .100 ISO.
The defense behind Bradley, when he’s not striking batters out, is hardly supportive with Thursday’s unit projecting to be worth -21 FRV on the year.
The Minnesota bullpen has improved with some deadline acquisitions and sit middle of the league with a 4.11 FIP, 4.20 xFIP and 3.74 SIERA over the last 30 days. BARTOLO only ranks them 24th, but there’s also the fact that they had to use six relievers in a 13 inning game against the Yankees on Wednesday after having to cover 3.2 innings on Tuesday too.
Walbert Urena’s 2.88 ERA is unsustainable. Seven or 13.7% of his runs have been unearned. Six of his seven unearned runs came in a relief appearance before his first start. As a starter, he has a probably unsustainable 79.4 LOB% with just a .251 BABIP.
Urena has walked 11.6% of batters faced, but with a 54.7 GB%, he can erase a lot of those problems. He’s struck out batters at a decent rate (22.6%) and has been very productive at the point of contact (5.4% Barrels/BBE, 36.4 HardHit%).
Ironically, Urena’s contact neutral estimators (SIERA, xFIP) are a bit higher than Bradley’s numbers, but his contact inclusive ones (FIP, xERA) are that much better with slightly better pitch modeling too (4.29 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+).
The latter measure favors his two most frequently thrown pitches, his sinker (32.3%, 114 P+) and changeup (34.1%, 116 P+), two predominantly ground ball pitches.
This leads me to rating these pitchers just about even from a run prevention standpoint.
Urena will certainly have the more difficult matchup against a projected Minnesota lineup averaging a 105 wRC+ against RHP and 97 wRC+ on the road, but just a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
However, Urena has held RHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA this season and the Twins have just Kody Clemens and Trevor Larnach from the left-hand side as names you’d recognize. Walker Jenkins is a decent prospect, but his 41 wRC+ against RHP isn’t scaring anyone yet.
By accumulating a combined 1 FRV, the Angels project a much better defense than the Twins, but the big surprise has been the bullpen. They’ve been producing top the of the league estimators for quiet a while now, ranking 3rd in the league with a 3.06 FIP, 3.80 xFIP and 3.52 SIERA over the last month. Even BARTOLO has them up to a respectable 16th now.
The problem has been a collective .352 BABIP over the last month and .322 since the All-Star break.
The only real edge for the Twins here is offense, which I put between 10 to 15 points of wRC+.
The unrecognized bullpen edge, which may included an overworked Minnesota unit, is the difference for me in a game where I have the home team just barely favored.
Pick: Angels +114, 0.5u | Bet to +105
