While Thursday Night Football kicks off at 8:15 PM ET, we have 9 Major League Baseball games on tap with the postseason as the objective.
Read below for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Thursday, September 17.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article. Make sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:35 PM | |
  | 7:15 PM | |
  | 7:40 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's Brewers vs Pirates F5 Bet
Kyle Harrison looks completely toast. He came out of the bullpen over the weekend, allowed four straight hits, and then got pulled.
He's now allowed 17 ERs over his last 7.1 IP. Harrison could be followed by middling righties like Chad Patrick or Garrett Stallings.
Pittsburgh will open with Wilber Dotel. He has an ERA up near 5.00 in his first taste of the majors.
It will not be Carmen Mlodzinski to follow, since he pitched last night. The Pirates are likely piecing this one together with the weaker arms of an underwhelming bullpen.
Last time Dotel opened, he was followed by Khristian Curtis and Antwone Kelly. The trio gave up a dozen runs to the Cubs.
Now they face a Milwaukee lineup that leads the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+ vs. righties over the last 30 days.
Pick: F5 Over 4.5 (-130)
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Action PRO's Phillies vs Mets Best Bet
By Action PRO
Even in a tough team situational spot for New York, Action PRO projects strong value on Bo Bichette's individual props, projecting him to clear his baseline target of 1.5 hits.
Comparing these projections against current line reveals a solid 9.8% edge on the over, earning the Over 1.5 Hits prop an A rating within internal projection systems.
Recent performance trends strongly support this projection, as Bichette enters the night swinging a scorching bat.
He has recorded multiple hits in three of his previous four games, highlighted by a dominant three-hit performance on September 15. Expect his hot streak to continue at the plate.
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Pick: Bo Bichette Over 1.5 Hits (+190)
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Derek Carty's Tigers vs White Pitching Prop
By Derek Carty
THE BAT X is forecasting 5.05 hits allowed for Tigers starter Framber Valdez compared to 6.04 hits allowed implied by the oddsmakers in this matchup against the White Sox, so I believe there is value here.
If you take the under, you'd be projected to win 64% of the time, resulting in a 42% ROI. Based on a $100 wager, the expected value here would be $41.61. This play is good down to at least -141.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
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Pick: Framber Valdez Under 5.5 Hits Allowed (+100)
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Matt Trollo's Twins vs Angels Moneyline Pick
By Matt Trollo
Taj Bradley has solidified himself in the Minnesota rotation, posting a strong season with a 27.3 K%, but still with a few too many walks (10.3%) and too much hard contact (9.3% Barrels/BBE, 45.2% hard-hit%).
Nevertheless, his 3.81 ERA is just barely below estimators ranging from a 3.88 SIERA to a 4.46 Bot ERA (100 Pitching+). With only a 4.28 dERA also otherwise being above four, it’s been an encouraging year.
Bradley will have a very enviable matchup against an awful LAA offense with the projected lineup averaging a mere 85 wRC+ against RHP, 80 wRC+ at home and only a marginally higher 92 wRC+ over the last month.
The lineup is more balanced than it’s been in years, but that hardly matters with batters from either side of the plate between a .298 and .312 wOBA and xwOBA against Bradley this year. Plus, the only quality bat they’ve added has been Wade Meckler, who’s 130 wRC+ against RHP (135 wRC+ L30 days) and comes with just a .100 ISO.
The defense behind Bradley, when he’s not striking batters out, is hardly supportive, with Thursday’s unit projected to be worth -21 FRV on the year.
The Minnesota bullpen has improved with some deadline acquisitions and sits in the middle of the league with a 4.11 FIP, 4.20 xFIP, and 3.74 SIERA over the last 30 days. BARTOLO only ranks them 24th, but there’s also the fact that they had to use six relievers in a 13-inning game against the Yankees on Wednesday after having to cover 3.2 innings on Tuesday too.
Walbert Urena’s 2.88 ERA is unsustainable. Seven, or 13.7%, of his runs have been unearned. Six of his seven unearned runs came in a relief appearance before his first start. As a starter, he has a probably unsustainable 79.4 LOB% with just a .251 BABIP.
Urena has walked 11.6% of batters faced, but with a 54.7 GB%, he can erase a lot of those problems. He’s struck out batters at a decent rate (22.6%) and has been very productive at the point of contact (5.4% Barrels/BBE, 36.4% hard-hit%).
Ironically, Urena’s contact neutral estimators (SIERA, xFIP) are a bit higher than Bradley’s numbers, but his contact inclusive ones (FIP, xERA) are that much better with slightly better pitch modeling too (4.29 Bot ERA, 104 Pitching+).
The latter measure favors his two most frequently thrown pitches, his sinker (32.3%, 114 P+) and changeup (34.1%, 116 P+), two predominantly ground ball pitches.
This leads me to rate these pitchers just about even from a run prevention standpoint.
Urena will certainly have the more difficult matchup against a projected Minnesota lineup averaging a 105 wRC+ against RHP and 97 wRC+ on the road, but just a 90 wRC+ over the last 30 days.
However, Urena has held RHBs below a .270 wOBA and xwOBA this season, and the Twins have just Kody Clemens and Trevor Larnach from the left-hand side as names you’d recognize. Walker Jenkins is a decent prospect, but his 41 wRC+ against RHP isn’t scaring anyone yet.
By accumulating a combined 1 FRV, the Angels project a much better defense than the Twins, but the big surprise has been the bullpen. They’ve been producing top-of-the-league estimators for quite a while now, ranking 3rd in the league with a 3.06 FIP, 3.80 xFIP, and 3.52 SIERA over the last month. Even BARTOLO has them up to a respectable 16th now.
The problem has been a collective .352 BABIP over the last month and .322 since the All-Star break.
The only real edge for the Twins here is offense, which I put between 10 and 15 points of wRC+.
The unrecognized bullpen edge, which may include an overworked Minnesota unit, is the difference for me in a game where I have the home team just barely favored.
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Pick: Angels ML (+114 | Bet to +105)
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