Mariners vs. White Sox Odds, Picks, Predictions: Red-Hot Chicago Offense to Thrive (April 13)
Icon Sportswire/Getty. Pictured: Dallas Keuchel throws a pitch against the Detroit Tigers.
Mariners vs. White Sox Odds
|White Sox Odds||-120|
|Over/Under||9 (-102 / -120)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
Two left-handers will take the mound in Chicago as two teams with playoff aspirations square off in a highly-anticipated American League battle. After taking the first game of the series in a close 3-2 affair, can the White Sox guarantee a series win against the Mariners on Wednesday? Let’s get into it.
Mariners Facing Difficult Matchup
The Mariners couldn’t have asked for more out of Robbie Ray in his Seattle debut. The lefty earned the victory last week with seven innings of one-run ball, striking out five along the way.
It helped the team to a big 2-1 win in Minnesota over the Twins, and against another tricky opponent the Mariners will be banking on more from their prized acquisition.
While Ray earned praise from around the league and was able to back up his 2.84 ERA from a year ago with a strong start to 2022, there were some issues here that have to be concerning. He walked four in his outing, and free passes have been an issue in the past for Ray.
He had one of the worst walk rates in the league two years ago with a mark of 17.9% in a pandemic-shortened 2020 season which was his fourth straight season in double-digits. His excellent 2021 campaign featured just a 6.7% walk rate with a blistering 32% strikeout rate, so the four walks and five strikeouts aren’t quite what the Mariners were expecting.
This is also a Seattle team which ranked 22nd in wRC+ to lefties last year, and while it has Julio Rodriguez to look forward to for many years to come, he’s started off his rookie season with just one hit. There aren’t many righties who scare you here, which is trouble when up against a lefty.
White Sox Offense Carrying Early Load
Dallas Keuchel will get the ball for the White Sox, and it’s been a few years now since we’ve been able to confidently bet on him. His strikeout rate fell to just 13.2% last season, and he was lit up to the tune of a 5.28 ERA.
That came along with a high 39.8% strikeout rate and a terrible .302 expected batting average. He was equally poor against righties and lefties, allowing an .827 OPS to both, though walks were more of the issue against righties.
Luckily for Keuchel, he will have a red-hot offense backing him up. Chicago has won three straight and scored 22 runs through four games, and while it is coming off a win where it scored just three runs, this matchup should be a little kinder. The White Sox ranked fourth in wRC+ to lefties a year ago and also ranked fourth in walk rate against all pitching.
Chicago has also been deploying a nearly all right-handed lineup against lefties, and if switch-hitting Yasmani Grandal draws the start behind the plate, we can expect to see nine right-handed bats against Ray.
Mariners-White Sox Pick
For all the good press that Ray got after his Mariners debut, I think there are some underlying concerns. The Twins have some decent bats in the lineup, but he should have managed a bit better than five strikeouts, and conversely the four walks are poor against any lineup.
It’s a small sample, and Ray does have some decent numbers against the White Sox, but then again we saw essentially one great Robbie Ray season mixed in with plenty of bad ones. We won’t know for months, but it’s certainly possible that last year was a flash in the pan.
Ray still has a lot of talent, but against a lineup this dangerous (and this right-handed) I think he might get himself into trouble. Limiting hard contact is something he’s never been good at — even in 2021 — and against a team which ranks among the best in exit velocity and walks, I have to fade him.
Pick: White Sox -120
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