Marlins vs Nationals Prediction Today | MLB Odds, Picks for Saturday, September 2
Greg Fiume/Getty. Pictured: Jazz Chizholm Jr.
Marlins vs Nationals Odds
The Washington Nationals have struggled at the dish as of late and have to put something together against a pretty solid bullpen/pitching staff from the Miami Marlins on Saturday.
Trevor Williams goes for the 'Nats at home. He is not having the best season. In August, he held a 5.32 ERA over 22 innings pitched, which is pretty much in line with his expected numbers.
The major discrepancy in this game is the offensive performances of each team. The Marlins do not have the best overall collective numbers, but they do have a strong top of the lineup, while everyone on the Nationals has been weak, no matter who is batting.
The Marlins moneyline should be in play in this Marlins vs Nationals MLB game.
Miami looks to be starting J.T. Chargois or an opener in this game, while it's possibly Johnny Cueto also starts. On the season, Chargois has been effective, but he also has thrown a maximum of two innings. When viewing the entirety of the Fish bullpen, they have a bevy of pitchers to throw in a game where they use an opener, so this should help push them across the finish line.
In August, the Marlins have a collective 4.24 xFIP in relief. They have a 27% strikeout rate, but they are walking over 11% of hitters. Their LOB Percentage is under 70%, so this may actually indicate some luck. That said, they still have five relievers under a 4.0 xFIP, including Chargois. Obviously, these are the names who carry a higher strikeout rate than the rest of the relief corps. Acquiring Jorge López and David Robertson has not proven successful, even if these two have been some of the more reliable relief arms in the past. Either way, they should have enough to throw at the Nationals to keep them in check.
The Fish have an 89 wRC+ since August 1 off of righties with a .705 OPS and a sub-20% strikeout rate. However, in the last two weeks, they have seemingly started to turn that around. Since August 16, they have six batters eclipsing a .335 xwOBA off of right-handers and two more over .315. Jake Burger and Jorge Soler have been some of the heavier hitters, so their deadline acquisitions were not totally a waste. This should be enough to score early and often off of Williams.
— Marlins Radio (@MarlinsRadio) August 27, 2023
Williams maintains a 4.82 ERA on the season against a 5.30 xERA, so his 5.32 ERA in August is more in line with expectations than results. This season, he has a career-high 10.2% Barrel Rate. His Average Exit Velocity is 88.2 MPH and his Hard Hit Rate is 38.1% (also a career-high). His walk rate is 7.6%, so this is not the worst, but the Fish are not necessarily accustomed to drawing walks at a high rate anyways. Instead, Williams’ strikeout rate is 17.2% (a career low), and this plays directly into the hands of the Marlins, who put the ball in play.
The Nationals have an 88 wRC+ with a 18.9% strikeout rate and .690 OPS in August, so this looks much more comparable to the Marlins in the last month. However, since August 16, they only have three batters over a .300 xwOBA and only one over the .320 mark (Lane Thomas). No matter how weak the deadline or back-end relievers have been for Miami, they should take down this poor-performing lineup, regardless of the handedness of the pitcher.
The Nationals do have the backup to Williams, if need be. They have the fourth-best xFIP in relief in the last two weeks at 3.65. Only one of their relievers is above a 4.00 xFIP, so essentially most of their relievers should be viable options. However, Williams may dig too large of a hole for the Nationals to make up ground offensively, so this may prove obsolete for the most part.
Marlins vs Nationals
Betting Pick & Prediction
Trevor Williams is weaker than anyone the Marlins should throw in this game, especially since he is tasked with carrying the bulk of the innings for Washington. Because Washington has failed to hit the ball lately, Miami’s moneyline to -170 should be the play in this game. They are the better team and can match Washington in relief.
There is a possibility that Cueto gets the start here, in which case I would play the Marlins' ML to -160.