Mets vs. Cardinals Betting Odds, Picks: Value on Scherzer & New York (Monday, April 25)

Mets vs. Cardinals Odds

So, who had the Mets, without Jacob deGrom, leading MLB in wins entering the last week of April?

Actually, it shouldn’t be a big surprise. Since 2014, the Mets are 107-80 in April and are the fourth most profitable team to bet on during the month in the league.

Well, the second most profitable team in April over that stretch just happens to be the St. Louis Cardinals. The Red Birds are also off to another solid start, beginning the year 9-5 with the fifth best record in the league.

These two teams are set to begin a three-game series in St. Louis, but who has the advantage between two teams used to getting off to fast starts?

New York Mets: Scherzer, Offense Thriving Early

The biggest signing off the offseason was three-time Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer. So far, the new king of Queens is off to a 3-0 start with 2.50 ERA and a 2.95 xERA. Scherzer is coming off a dominant seven inning outing, where he allowed just one hit and struck out 10 against the Giants.

Only two teams in the league have scored more runs than the Metropolitans this season and the Mets sit fifth in wRC+ and are sixth in wOBA.

New York also sits fourth in team batting average, hitting .256 on the year. The Mets have four players — Brandon Nimmo, Jeff McNeil, Mark Canha and  Francisco Lindor — batting at least .300 .

St. Louis Cardinals: Arenado, Edman Carrying Offense

St. Louis will send veteran Miles Mikolas (RHP) to the mound on Monday. The Cardinals won all three of his starts and he has posted a 1.76 ERA and 2.59 xERA. In 15 1/3 innings, he has allowed just three runs and struck out 13.

The story of the Cardinals offense has been the resurgence of four-time Silver Slugger Award winner Nolan Arenado. You can argue he has been the best player in the league to this point. He leads all of baseball with a .537 wOBA, a 257 wRC+ and ranks first in WAR.

Behind Arenado and Tommy Edman, the Cardinals lineup drops off, but those two have done enough to carry the load so far. As a team, the Cardinals rank 11th in wOBA and ninth in wRC+. They’ve also scored the 17th most runs this year.

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Mets-Cardinals Pick

Neither of these teams have suffered a loss when these pitchers have started. I’ll back New York and the generational great to be the one who keeps that streak going. Scherzer is coming off a dominant start and saw his strikeout rate return to form. His barrel rate was a concern early, but he didn’t allow a single barrel in his last outing.

The St. Louis native has enjoyed pitching in his hometown throughout his career. In his six starts at Busch Stadium, he is 3-2 with a 2.04 ERA and has struck out 59 batters in 39 2/3 innings.

While the Mets are much better against right-handed pitchers, St. Louis is better against lefties and has struggled with righties. Against right-handed pitchers this year, the Cardinals rank 17th in wOBA and 16th in wRC+. The Mets rank fifth and fourth.

We all know the Mets will inevitably collapse around mid-August, but for now, I’ll continue to back the boys from Queens, who have started the year 11-3 as a favorite.

Pick: New York Mets -135 (Play to -145)