Mets vs. Cubs Odds, Picks: Betting Value on Thursday’s Favorite (July 14)
Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Carrasco
- The Mets are small road favorites tonight in the opener of a series against the Cubs.
- New York sends Carlos Carrasco to the mound, while Chicago will counter with Keegan Thompson.
- Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.
Mets vs. Cubs Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-105 / -115)|
|Time||8:05 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
To its credit, New York went on the road and took two of three from the Braves, adding a game to its lead in the process. Next, the Mets will be in Chicago for the first of four games with the Chicago Cubs.
The Cubs will enter tonight’s game on a six-game losing streak, including a 7-1 loss to the Baltimore Orioles Wednesday night. However, their most recent loss was the first by more than two runs during that stretch.
The Cubs will draw a tough assignment in trying to end their skid tonight. Can they, or will the Mets will keep rolling?
Mets’ Carrasco Matches Up Well With Chicago
Veteran Carlos Carrasco will get the ball for the Mets and he comes in at 9-4 record in 17 starts. He struggled in June with a 6.37 ERA that has pushed his ERA up to 4.55 on the year. However, he has allowed just three runs through 11 1/3 innings in his first two starts in July. For the season, Carrasco has a 3.49 FIP, .264 xBA and a slightly above average strikeout rate at 23.7%.
Carrasco should match up favorably against this Cubs lineup. His chase rate is in the 97th percentile while his whiff rate is in 68th percentile. The Cubs are sixth in the major leagues in strikeouts and are striking out at a 22.7% clip vs. RHP over the last month.
If you are into props, Carrasco’s strikeout prop is worth a look at either over 4.5 or 5.5 strikeouts. DraftKings currently has over 4.5 at a -145 price.
While Carrasco looks to keep the Cubs’ bats in check, he will be backed by a potent Mets offense. The Mets are fourth in the majors in runs scored and they are also a touch better on the road offensively. The team has .256 batting average and .727 OPS compared to .251 and .721 at Citi Field.
Despite coming in just 2-for-26 against Charlie Morton, shortstop Francisco Lindor hit a three-run home run in Wednesday’s game to key the 7-3 run. The Mets star has three home runs and seven run batted in his last seven games.
The team may be out without outfielder Starling Marte for a little longer. Marte has missed missed the last four games with a groin injury and may be headed for a stint on the IL.
Thompson Has Broken Out For Cubs
Keegan Thompson gets the ball for the Cubs and he has had a breakout season. The 27-year old is 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA, 3.62 FIP, and .230 xBA. Among NL starters, he ranks 18th in WAR.
Thompson is a strike thrower and has only surrendered 25 walks in 77 innings to go along with a 7.9% walk rate. However, that could work against him against the Mets. A mistake over the heart of the plate could travel a long way against Lindor or Pete Alonso.
The Cubs will need their offense to snap out of its funk to end their losing streak. The team is hitting .209 and averaging 3.5 runs in the month of July. It has resulted in a 4-8 record. During the losing streak, the Cubs have scored just 20 runs in those six games, which even included a nine-run outburst against the Dodgers.
Catcher Willson Contreras has been the subject of trade rumors, but he has struggled of late. He has hit just one home run in his last 15 games and he is 3/29 over his last seven. However, he is 2-for-6 in his career vs. Carrasco.
Over the last week, the Cubs have had to dealt with the Dodgers, the red-hot Orioles, and it will not get any easier tonight against the Mets.
Thompson has been the Cubs’ best starter this season, but the team has lost his last three starts. He is only responsible for one of those decisions, but if his offense cannot give him any run support, the Cubs will struggle again.
I like Carrasco to give the Cubs’ offense fits and continue their struggles. I expect the Mets’ offense to do just enough to pull out the win.
I will be backing Mets moneyline to kick off this series.
Pick: Mets ML -130