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MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Giants: Does New York Have Value As Rare Underdog?

MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Giants: Does New York Have Value As Rare Underdog? article feature image
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Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: Francisco Lindor

  • The Mets are rare underdogs for tonight's road game against the Giants.
  • David Peterson takes the hill for New York and will be opposed by San Francisco's Alex Cobb
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Mets vs. Giants Odds

Mets Odds +120
Giants Odds -145
Over/Under 7.5 (-120 / +100)
Time 9:45 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

It’s very rare you see the Mets as an underdog these days. In fact, they haven’t sat at plus money since May 5th.

Well, with David Peterson opposing Alex Cobb on Monday night in San Francisco, the Mets are finally expected to lose. Will they, though?

Let’s take a look at this matchup.

Mets’ Offense Still Humming

It’s been nearly impossible to find the Mets at plus money this season in pre-game markets. In fact, they’ve been underdogs just five times, going 3-2 in those contests. Monday may be a tricky one to take home considering New York will be trotting out Peterson.

The young left-hander has been rather hard to read. He had a decent enough start to his career with some solid peripherals early on. Then, Peterson began to struggle.

He finished his rookie year with a 4.36 xERA in a limited sample and followed that with a 5.96 xERA last season in a year where he was something of a disaster. He was 2-6 in 15 starts, allowing a near-43% hard-hit rate and a blasphemous .445 xwOBA on contact.

He’s settled back in this season with a 1.89 ERA in a small, 19-inning sample and it seems that it’s only a matter of time before he falters once more.

In terms of the offense, the Mets’ great contact experiment is still going strong. They’re seventh in wRC+ despite ranking 21st in home runs, 24th in hard-hit rate and 28th in barrels per plate appearance. The only numbers that matter are their 78.3% contact rate and 19.8% strikeout rate, both of which rank in the top four in the major leagues.

They have proven to this point you can kill your opponents with shift-beaters and soft liners to the outfield.

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Cobb Confounds For Giants

Is Cobb actually good? Despite years and years worth of data, he may have actually figured something out after joining the pitching factory over there in San Francisco at age 34.

The right-hander has followed in the footsteps of former journeymen like Kevin Gausman and Alex Wood, signing with the Giants and becoming a new pitcher.

Cobb has not seen the results he really should be seeing to this point. He’s done an excellent job of inducing soft contact, only allowing one barrel in his six starts and an excellent 28.8% hard-hit rate with a low .276 xwOBA on contact. He’s inside the top 4% of the league in all of the expected stats, but his ERA reads 5.61.

In actuality, he’s really only had two bad outings, and one of them was at Coors Field. The other happened to be against these Mets, where he allowed three earned on six hits.

While it wasn’t a game which saw the Mets register a lot of hard-hit balls, it was a game where New York did what it does to every pitcher, and that is find where the fielders aren’t.

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Mets-Giants Pick

I am very interested to see what happens this season with Cobb given the peripherals, but I am in no mood to fade the Mets after they just successfully got to Cobb a month or so ago. The veteran righty is striking out a good deal of hitters at over 28% but it’s not like he’s Max Scherzer over here.

Cobb allows enough contact where I’d believe a contact-oriented team can get the bat on the ball. As we know, too, the Mets are incredible at finding holes in the defense and getting men on base with soft contact.

With Brandon Belt still out for San Francisco and the offense going through a rough patch, I’ll grab the rare plus money with the Mets.

Pick: Mets ML (+126)

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