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Mets vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Chris Bassitt Match Cy Young Favorite Sandy Alcantara? (Friday, July 29)

Mets vs. Marlins MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Chris Bassitt Match Cy Young Favorite Sandy Alcantara? (Friday, July 29) article feature image
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Daniel Shirey/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Starling Marte and Sandy Alcantara during All-Star Week in Los Angeles.

  • The Mets are slight road favorites on the road tonight against the Marlins.
  • New York sends Chris Bassitt to the mound against Miami's Cy Young favorite, Sandy Alcantara.
  • Continue reading for a full breakdown of this matchup, including a betting pick.

Mets vs. Marlins Odds

Mets Odds -125
Marlins Odds +105
Over/Under 6.5
Time 6:40 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The Mets enter this series on a high after sweeping the first installment of the Subway Series against the rival Yankees. The team has won three straight overall and is 7-3 in its last 10 games. Next on the docket is a trip to Miami to face Sandy Alcantara and the Miami Marlins.

The Marlins return home following a seven-road trip, which ended as a success at 4-3. Miami pulled off a comeback victory Thursday to earn a series split with the Cincinnati Reds. Outfielder Jesus Sanchez hit a pinch-hit home run to tie the game in the ninth inning and the team tacked on two more runs to pull out a victory, 7-6.

The Marlins will look to build on their momentum offensively with their ace on the mound. However, runs have been hard to come by in Alcantara’s starts. Could another low-scoring Mets-Marlins game be in store?

Can Mets Hit Alcantara?

Chris Bassitt will get the start for the Mets and he is 7-7 with a 3.72 ERA. Bassitt has had a quality start in 12 of his 18 starts this year and he leads the team in both innings pitched (109) and strikeouts (115). Bassitt has a .213 xBA, 3.13 xERA and .278 xWOBA. He ranks in the upper third of the league in all categories as well hard hit percentage and strikeout percentage. He ranks in the 95th percentile in average exit velocity.

Bassitt will be making his fourth start of the year against the Marlins. He is 1-2 so far, however, he has only allowed eight earned runs in 19 2/3 innings to go along with 17 strikeouts. Bassitt had nine strikeouts against the Marlins on June 19st and his strikeout line is at 5.5 right now. I recommend the over.

Bassitt’s offense will have to deal with Alcantara, who has been dominant this season. The Mets’ lineup has had mixed results against him. First baseman Pete Alonso and outfielder Starling Marte both come in hot. Alonso is hitting .458 with two home runs in his last seven games while Marte is hitting .383 over his last 15 games. However, Alonso is 5-for-27 against Alcantara while Marte is 1-for-10.

On the other hand, shortstop Francisco Lindor is 7-for-22 with a homer against Alcantara. Outfielder, Mark Canha, third baseman, J.D. Davis, and second baseman Luis Guillorme are all hitting .400 against him. Second baseman Jeff McNeil is 8-for-28 with a homer while designated hitter Daniel Vogelbach is 2-for-6 with a home run off Alcantara.

Marlins Seeking Offense Behind Ace

Alcantara is the betting favorite to win the NL Cy Young and he was in Cy Young form against the Pirates his last time out. He allowed two runs on two hits and struck out 10 in six innings. Alcantara is 9-4 with a 1.81 ERA and 133 strikeouts in 144 1/3 innings. He leads the majors in innings pitched, is second in ERA and is third in the NL in strikeouts.

Alcantara ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xERA, xBA and xSLG and he is in the 89th percentile in chase rate. Alcantara is 1-1 with a 2.45 ERA against the Mets in three starts this season. However, the run support has not always been there for Alcantara this season. He has gotten two runs or fewer in run support in seven of his 20 starts this season. He is 0-2 with a 1.03 ERA in those starts.

The Marlins’ offense is 24th in the league in runs scored and 27th in OPS. Miami is averaging 2.6 runs over its last 11 games. That includes a 37-inning scoreless streak. The team is hoping for more offense and called up top prospect J.J. Bleday,

Miami’s fourth overall pick in 2019, Bleday hit his first home run of career in Cincinnati, but is hitting just .182 to begin his career. However, his 95.3 mph average exit velocity, .265 xBA and .548 xSLG suggest a breakout is coming out.

Third baseman Joey Wendle has been doing his best to provide a spark at the top of the lineup. He has a hit in nine of his last 11 games and two hits in five of his last seven games. He is hitting .333 in his last 15 games.

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Mets-Marlins Pick

With Bassitt and Alcantara on the mound, runs will be at a premium. However, I am going to focus on the total in the first half of the game rather than the full game.

With the full game total at 6.5, it could get over once Bassitt and Alcantara exit or if the game goes to extra innings.

Bassitt and Alcantara should keep the game under four runs through the first five innings, however, so that will be my play.

Pick: F5 Under 3.5 runs (-138)

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