MLB Odds & Picks for Mets vs. Padres: Does San Diego Deserve to Be Favorite?
Matt Thomas/San Diego Padres/Getty Images. Pictured: Jorge Alfaro of the San Diego Padres.
- Despite owning the best record in the NL, the Mets are underdogs vs. the Padres on Tuesday.
- The Padres are turning to Yu Darvish while the Mets will send Taijuan Walker to the mound.
- Nicholas Martin breaks down where to find value on this MLB matchup.
Mets vs. Padres Odds
|Over/Under||7.5 (-115 / -105)|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
|Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
New York extended its winning streak to three games in Monday’s series opener. Eduardo Escobar hit for the cycle in the Mets’ 11-5 victory.
Mets pitcher Taijuan Walker has been an important contributor to the team’s spectacular 38-19 record. Walker will take the mound on Tuesday with an ERA of 2.88 through 40.2 innings pitched.
San Diego will counter Walker with pitcher Yu Darvish, who boasts a 4.03 ERA in 60.2 innings of action.
The question is: Are the Padres a worthy favorite in this spot?
Will Mets Keep Rolling At the Plate?
Taijuan Walker was not a logical candidate to achieve strong results in this 2022 campaign, and his early success certainly looks surprising considering his historical numbers.
However his xERA of 4.39 is still only a very modest improvement compared to his marks over the previous handful of seasons, and that expected mark is 1.51 runs higher than his actual results so far.
Walker has continued to get hit hard and walk more batters over his last 100 PAs, and his 2.09 ERA over his last three outings does not sit in line with his numbers or the eye test.
Walker allowed a WHIP of 1.39 in 17.2 innings over those three starts, and there doesn’t seem to be much for logical causation as to why his vastly improved ERA should hold moving forward this season.
Offensively, the Mets have been otherworldly so far in 2022, leading the NL with a .267 batting average and a .292 average with runners in scoring position.
Yet, the Mets sit just 13th in xwOBA at .334 and 18th with an xwOBAcon of .378.
Those numbers don’t mean everything, and the Mets hold a simply elite contact rate of 78.8%. But it does seem likely that this group should trend toward strong but not elite results at the plate moving forward.
Padres Turn to Yu Darvish
Contrary to Walker, it actually seems that Padres starter Yu Darvish is due for better results moving forward and that his elite spin rates should still allow effective results in 2022.
Darvish has pitched to an xERA of 3.97 this season and has managed quality starts in six of his eight starts since getting absolutely hammered for nine earned runs in 1.2 innings against the Giants on April 12.
At home, Darvish has been considerably better with an ERA of 2.71 compared to his 5.71 mark on the road. He also holds an excellent WHIP of 0.68 at home to go along with a 5.0 K/BB.
Early on, the Padres’ expected batted rates suggested regression was coming, and over the last month, the Padres have struggled to the 26th-best wRC+ (86) over the last month with a .285 wOBA.
Mets vs. Padres Pick
Without diving into the numbers, I can say with confidence the public will be heavy on the Mets in this spot, where an underdog price on the better team with a solid pitcher looks like an obvious play.
However, I think what may be underrated by many is how much of a pitching edge Darvish is actually offering in this spot over Walker, especially considering Darvish’s masterful play at home so far.
Walker has effectively managed a lot of baserunners of late, but eventually, the combination of contact and batters walked is going to get to him. That could happen tonight, even if the Padres are quietly holding an overrated offense themselves.
With the kind of start I’m hoping to see from Darvish, my favorite way to attack this is backing the Padres’ seven-inning moneyline at -135, with my logic being I want this bet to take place in the innings Darvish should pitch.
Another option I feel holds value is backing the Padres to lead after the sixth inning, which is priced at -106.
Picks: Padres 7-Inning Line (-135) · Padres to Lead After 6 Innings (-106)