MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: 4 Best Bets From Tuesday’s Slate, Including Mariners vs. Astros, Rockies vs. Giants (June 7)
Photo by Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images. Pictured: Carlos Rodon (Giants)
Our analysts are on four games tonight, including a few surprising run line plays, a total and a road underdog.
Here are our four best bets from Tuesday night’s Major League Baseball slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
Tanner McGrath: It’s not going to be fun relying on the Miami offense to cover a run line. But there’s a few reasons to be optimistic about my Fish today.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is in a bit of a slump, but he’s always a threat (leads the league in triples this season). And after two straight seasons of posting an OPS+ above 125, Garrett Cooper’s number currently sits at a team-high 137. Over the last 13 games, Cooper is slashing .451/.491/.706 with 13 RBI.
Plus, we get to fade Joan Adon today. The 23-year-old righty hasn’t produced high-level results since Rookie ball, and he currently pairs his 5.98 ERA with a 6.01 xERA. He managed to pitch 4 2/3 innings of one-run ball earlier this season against Miami, but he did so with a 5.71 FIP.
Opposing him will be the sensational Edward Cabrera, who dazzled everyone with his record-breaking changeup against the Rockies. (Read more about Cabrera here).
Edward Cabrera, Absurd 96mph CHANGEUP. 😳 pic.twitter.com/SJxASS6UOR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 1, 2022
Cabrera is going to be a problem. He pairs that ridiculous changeup with a fastball that hovers in the high 90s and a plus slider. Of his nine strikeouts against the Rockies, five came on the changeup, two on the fastball and two on the slider.
Cabrera also paired those nine strikeouts with six innings of no-run ball at Coors Field. He’s had injury issues in the past, but he’s looking 100% right now, and that’s enough for me.
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros
DJ James: Justin Verlander has put together a solid season after missing most of the last two years. But he’s been a bit lucky with a 3.06 xERA versus his 2.23 ERA. He has a tendency to allow hard contact at a league average rate, so there is some wiggle room for a hot Seattle Mariners offense. The Mariners will throw Chris Flexen, who is living on the edge with brutal peripherals and a 5.50 xERA.
In the past month, both of these offenses have been on fire. The Mariners rank fifth in the MLB at 123 wRC+, while the Astros are second at 131. Each has a collective OBP over .325, too, so they can get on base often.
The Astros likely win this game, but the Mariners will squeeze a few across the plate. The Astros also have a 4.16 bullpen xFIP in the last month, so they have weak spots once Verlander exits.
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres
Kenny Ducey: Look, I’m no fan of betting on Taijuan Walker, but this matchup is definitely skewed toward the Mets in my mind. Not only is Walker set up for rare success against the Padres, the Mets get to face one of my least-favorite pitchers in baseball.
Yu Darvish has been rock-steady for many years, but you can’t really include the last six or seven months in there. The right-hander crashed and burned from mid-June on last season and has followed that up with a 4.03 ERA and 3.97 xERA in 10 starts in 2022.
While many Savant Bros (just now trying to coin this!) were all over the right-hander earlier in the year with an expected ERA pointing to some slight positive regression from his horrid start, I think by now we are seeing that Darvish is a truly flawed pitcher.
He has given up a career-worst 38.8% hard-hit rate with a poor .382 xwOBA on contact, but worst of all has to be the fact that his strikeout rate is just a measly 19.8%. For years, we talked about how great this guy was at lighting up the scorebook and missing bats left and right, but now he’s nothing more than a contact-oriented pitcher who throws a variety of fastballs.
The Mets happen to rank seventh in pitch value against fastballs and are one of the very best teams in the league in terms of contact at 79.9%. This is a nightmare matchup for Darvish, and on the other side of the coin a fellow pitch-to-contact righty in Walker will find a Padres team ranked eighth in groundball rate.
Colorado Rockies vs. San Francisco Giants
Jules Posner: The San Francisco Giants return home after a three city road trip that took them through Cincinnati, Philadelphia and Miami. The Giants managed to go 5-5 on that trip that despite being banged up.
The Colorado Rockies are 3-7 in their last 10 and 7-15 on the road so far this season. They are also in the bottom third of teams in team wRC+ on the road against LHP over the past few weeks.
Carlos Rodon gets the start for the Giants and despite his road struggles, he’s been an elite pitcher at home. He has a 2.35 ERA with a 1.62 FIP at home over four home starts. This will be a tall order for the Rockies’ offense.
On the other side, German Marquez has really struggled to find his footing on the mound in 2022. Marquez has a 6.89 ERA on the road this season, but his 3.39 road FIP indicates he should be due for some positive regression.
However, he will be taking on a Giants’ offense that has a 123 team wRC+ against RHP at home over the past few weeks.
The Giants run line is around -105 on some books and that is a solid value heading into tonight’s match up. This could be played to the -115 territory, as it seems like the Giants will be refreshed after a day off following their road trip.